NBA games

ORL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
131–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL18463829131
SAC2827291094

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home SAC
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 32 30 5 6
Anthony Black S 31 20 3 3
Desmond Bane S 32 17 4 2
Jett Howard 13 16 0 0
Jevon Carter 23 14 3 4
Tristan da Silva 18 12 4 1
Moritz Wagner 18 11 2 3
Jalen Suggs S 20 9 3 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 25 2 8 3
Noah Penda 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Maxime Raynaud S 39 17 14 4
Keegan Murray S 32 15 8 2
Precious Achiuwa S 34 14 10 1
Malik Monk 20 14 0 2
DeMar DeRozan S 19 13 3 6
Devin Carter 28 11 5 4
Russell Westbrook S 17 5 0 1
Nique Clifford 30 5 2 1
Drew Eubanks 11 0 5 1
Daeqwon Plowden 10 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 29-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
2 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
3 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
4 Anthony Black ORL
9%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
9%
6 Desmond Bane ORL
8%
7 Maxime Raynaud SAC
7%
8 Devin Carter SAC
7%
9 Precious Achiuwa SAC
7%
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
26%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.8 6.9 4.2
2 Desmond Bane ORL 22.6 3.3 3.3
3 Anthony Black ORL 19.1 4.2 4.0
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 18.3 3.4 2.9
5 Russell Westbrook SAC 17.0 3.3 5.2
6 Keegan Murray SAC 14.2 5.3 1.7
7 Malik Monk SAC 13.4 2.4 3.2
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.0 4.7 6.8
9 Nique Clifford SAC 13.0 3.9 3.0
10 Maxime Raynaud SAC 10.0 7.0 0.8
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.7 5.8 1.6
12 Devin Carter SAC 7.3 2.8 1.9
13 Moritz Wagner ORL 6.6 2.7 0.5
14 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.5 8.6 1.2
15 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.3 2.0 1.1
16 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 4.9 2.2 1.0
17 Precious Achiuwa SAC 4.6 4.3 0.8
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.1 4.1 0.4
19 Noah Penda ORL 3.6 2.2 0.8
20 Jett Howard ORL 3.4 0.8 0.6
21 Doug McDermott SAC 3.0 0.9 0.4
22 Jamal Cain ORL 2.8 0.7 0.4
23 Jase Richardson ORL 2.8 0.8 0.6
24 Drew Eubanks SAC 2.6 1.4 0.3
25 Jevon Carter ORL 2.5 0.8 0.4
26 Jonathan Isaac ORL 2.0 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.