NBA games

BOS @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
121–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS36382819121
GS32192237110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home GS
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard 33 26 6 7
Jaylen Brown S 37 23 15 13
Sam Hauser S 28 16 3 5
Derrick White S 39 10 5 8
Nikola Vucevic 28 9 5 0
Neemias Queta S 18 9 6 1
Baylor Scheierman S 24 7 5 1
Hugo Gonzalez 12 7 4 0
Ron Harper Jr. 12 6 2 1
Jordan Walsh 7 5 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Anthony Melton S 25 18 3 1
Will Richard 24 17 5 2
Gui Santos S 32 17 6 2
Gary Payton II 18 14 3 2
Kristaps Porzingis 17 12 1 1
Brandin Podziemski 27 11 7 6
Moses Moody S 23 11 3 2
Pat Spencer S 27 5 2 7
Al Horford 28 5 8 4
Draymond Green S 19 0 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moses Moody · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Moses Moody makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
2 Neemias Queta BOS
12%
3 Derrick White BOS
10%
4 De'Anthony Melton GS
10%
5 Draymond Green GS
9%
6 Pat Spencer GS
9%
7 Gui Santos GS
9%
8 Baylor Scheierman BOS
9%
9 Moses Moody GS
9%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
20%
Layup
49%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 20.7 6.3 2.9
2 Payton Pritchard BOS 19.2 3.4 4.9
3 Nikola Vucevic BOS 16.9 7.8 3.2
4 Derrick White BOS 16.6 3.9 5.8
5 Kristaps Porzingis GS 16.2 4.5 2.2
6 De'Anthony Melton GS 13.3 3.2 3.4
7 Moses Moody GS 12.8 4.0 1.6
8 Gui Santos GS 12.5 4.7 2.8
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.3 4.5 4.4
10 Sam Hauser BOS 8.9 3.5 1.5
11 Al Horford GS 8.7 5.0 2.4
12 Pat Spencer GS 8.5 2.9 3.4
13 Draymond Green GS 8.2 4.8 4.1
14 Neemias Queta BOS 7.5 8.1 2.0
15 Luka Garza BOS 6.8 3.1 1.1
16 Baylor Scheierman BOS 6.0 5.3 1.4
17 Nate Williams GS 4.9 2.2 0.9
18 Gary Payton II GS 4.6 2.1 0.9
19 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.8 2.8 0.7
20 Quinten Post GS 3.8 2.0 0.8
21 Will Richard GS 3.7 1.6 1.1
22 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.0 2.3 0.5
23 Malevy Leons GS 2.7 1.7 0.5
24 Dalano Banton BOS 2.5 0.9 0.7
25 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 2.3 1.7 0.6
26 Amari Williams BOS 1.5 2.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.