NBA games

PHX @ SA

NBA Moody Center ·Final
94–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX2524222394
SA30313723121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home SA
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 26 26 3 2
Mark Williams S 23 11 10 0
Jordan Goodwin 27 10 4 1
Oso Ighodaro 18 10 2 5
Collin Gillespie S 30 8 2 8
Royce O'Neale S 27 8 7 1
Jamaree Bouyea 18 7 3 2
Devin Booker S 9 5 1 0
Khaman Maluach 8 4 6 0
Rasheer Fleming 12 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 21 20 2 4
Dylan Harper 26 17 1 1
Victor Wembanyama S 25 17 11 4
De'Aaron Fox S 22 15 3 8
Devin Vassell S 23 12 2 2
Luke Kornet 16 10 9 2
Julian Champagnie S 22 8 6 1
Harrison Barnes 20 8 4 4
Keldon Johnson 20 6 2 1
Carter Bryant 16 6 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Collin Gillespie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
16%
2 Stephon Castle SA
13%
3 Devin Booker PHX
12%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
5 Mark Williams PHX
11%
6 Royce O'Neale PHX
9%
7 Devin Vassell SA
9%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
9 Jordan Goodwin PHX
7%
10 Collin Gillespie PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
56%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.2 10.4 2.7
2 Dillon Brooks PHX 22.9 4.7 2.7
3 Devin Booker PHX 19.8 4.0 5.1
4 Stephon Castle SA 17.0 5.6 6.2
5 Keldon Johnson SA 13.9 4.7 2.0
6 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.5 4.0 3.6
7 Mark Williams PHX 11.5 7.7 1.3
8 De'Aaron Fox SA 11.4 2.3 5.2
9 Dylan Harper SA 11.4 4.4 3.2
10 Devin Vassell SA 10.0 3.3 1.5
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.0 3.6 2.4
12 Jalen Green PHX 8.6 1.9 1.8
13 Harrison Barnes SA 8.5 2.6 1.5
14 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.3 4.2 2.0
15 Julian Champagnie SA 8.0 3.5 1.2
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.0 4.8 1.3
17 Carter Bryant SA 5.0 2.6 0.7
18 Luke Kornet SA 4.2 5.7 1.3
19 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 4.2 1.5 1.3
20 Amir Coffey PHX 4.0 1.3 0.5
21 Ryan Dunn PHX 3.8 2.0 0.8
22 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.4 1.2 0.6
23 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.4 1.2 0.5
24 Isaiah Livers PHX 2.2 1.4 0.6
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.6 0.9 0.5
26 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.3 1.4 0.3
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.2 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.