NBA games

TOR @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
110–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR25283423110
CHI23223323101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CHI
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 36 31 8 6
Immanuel Quickley S 33 14 2 3
Scottie Barnes S 34 14 9 5
Ja'Kobe Walter 22 14 4 0
RJ Barrett S 25 13 6 3
Collin Murray-Boyles S 29 11 6 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 16 7 3 0
Jamal Shead 20 4 3 4
Jakob Poeltl 16 2 0 1
Gradey Dick 9 0 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 31 20 1 1
Isaac Okoro S 30 16 5 1
Tre Jones 22 12 1 6
Collin Sexton 15 11 1 2
Jalen Smith S 24 9 10 2
Guerschon Yabusele 17 8 5 1
Patrick Williams 27 6 7 1
Nick Richards 12 6 5 0
Josh Giddey S 21 5 4 5
Matas Buzelis S 31 4 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes running layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
2 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
10%
3 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
6 Collin Sexton CHI
9%
7 Matas Buzelis CHI
8%
8 Anfernee Simons CHI
8%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
10 Guerschon Yabusele CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
48%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 19.6 5.7 3.8
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.7 5.1 5.4
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 18.6 4.5 2.8
4 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.5 5.9 2.7
5 Josh Giddey CHI 16.4 6.1 8.0
6 Scottie Barnes TOR 15.6 8.0 4.8
7 Anfernee Simons CHI 15.6 3.3 2.8
8 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 14.8 5.2 2.1
9 Tre Jones CHI 12.9 3.2 6.5
10 Collin Sexton CHI 12.2 2.5 2.5
11 Jalen Smith CHI 11.3 7.1 1.4
12 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 10.0 5.4 2.9
13 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.6 2.2 1.6
14 Jakob Poeltl TOR 8.8 7.6 2.2
15 Patrick Williams CHI 8.2 2.9 1.6
16 Jaden Ivey CHI 7.5 2.9 1.8
17 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.6 2.5 1.3
18 Jamal Shead TOR 6.5 2.5 4.2
19 Gradey Dick TOR 5.4 1.8 0.7
20 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 3.9 2.1 0.6
21 Rob Dillingham CHI 3.4 1.2 1.4
22 Nick Richards CHI 3.2 3.2 0.4
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.9 1.8 0.6
24 Jamison Battle TOR 2.6 1.3 0.5
25 Leonard Miller CHI 2.4 1.2 0.3
26 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.0 1.9 0.4
27 Garrett Temple TOR 1.7 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.