NBA games

DET @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
126–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET28303236126
NY26223132111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home NY
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 42 8 13
Paul Reed S 29 18 7 2
Tobias Harris S 32 11 10 5
Ausar Thompson S 31 10 5 4
Javonte Green 20 9 5 0
Duncan Robinson S 21 9 1 0
Daniss Jenkins 18 8 2 2
Caris LeVert 20 8 2 3
Ronald Holland II 12 7 2 1
Tolu Smith 18 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 38 33 6 8
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 21 11 4
Landry Shamet 28 15 2 2
Josh Hart S 28 11 4 3
Mikal Bridges S 25 8 3 0
OG Anunoby S 32 8 0 0
Mitchell Robinson 19 7 6 0
Jose Alvarado 21 6 4 5
Jeremy Sochan 10 2 0 1
Mohamed Diawara 9 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:53 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
4 OG Anunoby NY
10%
5 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
7 Jalen Duren DET
8%
8 Tobias Harris DET
8%
9 Paul Reed DET
7%
10 Landry Shamet NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
34%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 21.0 4.9 6.7
2 Jalen Brunson NY 18.2 3.6 5.2
3 Mikal Bridges NY 18.1 3.4 3.4
4 OG Anunoby NY 17.5 4.9 3.5
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 15.0 10.7 2.4
6 Josh Hart NY 13.4 6.7 5.0
7 Tobias Harris DET 11.5 5.0 1.7
8 Jalen Duren DET 10.9 7.2 1.2
9 Duncan Robinson DET 10.4 2.5 1.7
10 Landry Shamet NY 8.1 2.1 1.7
11 Ausar Thompson DET 7.9 5.8 2.6
12 Daniss Jenkins DET 7.4 2.2 1.9
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.2 2.9 0.8
14 Jose Alvarado NY 7.2 2.3 2.5
15 Paul Reed DET 6.6 4.0 1.3
16 Ronald Holland II DET 5.4 2.8 1.1
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.0 7.5 0.5
18 Caris LeVert DET 4.7 1.9 2.0
19 Tyler Kolek NY 4.7 1.1 2.8
20 Kevin Huerter DET 4.3 2.7 1.3
21 Mohamed Diawara NY 4.2 1.4 0.6
22 Jordan Clarkson NY 4.0 1.2 0.8
23 Javonte Green DET 3.8 2.1 0.5
24 Tolu Smith DET 3.0 4.2 0.5
25 Marcus Sasser DET 2.9 0.6 1.2
26 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.3 2.7 0.3
27 Chaz Lanier DET 1.8 0.7 0.3
28 Jeremy Sochan NY 1.1 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.