NBA games

IND @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
105–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND24233325105
WSH26332924112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home WSH
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarace Walker S 30 19 14 7
Taelon Peter 25 16 5 2
Ben Sheppard S 27 15 3 2
Jay Huff S 21 15 8 1
Micah Potter 27 14 6 1
Kobe Brown 33 12 9 1
Andrew Nembhard S 22 5 1 4
Kam Jones 14 4 0 2
Aaron Nesmith S 15 3 2 1
Ethan Thompson 27 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Gill 31 13 8 3
Bub Carrington S 28 13 4 3
Kadary Richmond 29 13 5 3
Jaden Hardy 18 13 1 0
Bilal Coulibaly S 23 12 4 4
Tristan Vukcevic S 17 12 5 2
Tre Johnson S 19 10 6 2
Sharife Cooper 24 8 5 7
Will Riley 4 6 0 0
Alondes Williams 28 6 5 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jay Huff · 3PT (3 pts) · 12:00 Q1
"Jay Huff makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Andrew Nembhard IND
11%
2 Tre Johnson WSH
10%
3 Kyshawn George WSH
10%
4 Jarace Walker IND
9%
5 Kam Jones IND
8%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
7 Kobe Brown IND
8%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
10 Ben Sheppard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
35%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Andrew Nembhard IND 21.2 4.2 8.8
2 Jarace Walker IND 18.7 5.4 2.8
3 Kyshawn George WSH 15.3 4.8 4.6
4 Tre Johnson WSH 14.6 2.8 3.0
5 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.2 4.3 2.5
6 Bub Carrington WSH 13.0 2.6 4.6
7 Will Riley WSH 12.5 3.1 2.4
8 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.9 5.6 1.4
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.9 3.5 2.0
10 Jamir Watkins WSH 8.8 4.6 1.4
11 Jay Huff IND 8.1 3.9 1.1
12 T.J. McConnell IND 7.6 2.3 3.5
13 Jaden Hardy WSH 7.4 1.5 1.2
14 Micah Potter IND 7.2 4.2 1.2
15 Sharife Cooper WSH 6.4 2.3 2.1
16 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 6.3 1.9 1.1
17 Ben Sheppard IND 5.6 2.0 1.5
18 Kam Jones IND 4.3 1.3 1.6
19 Ethan Thompson IND 3.7 1.4 0.8
20 Anthony Gill WSH 3.5 2.8 0.8
21 Kobe Brown IND 3.1 1.8 0.8
22 Taelon Peter IND 3.1 1.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.