NBA games

ATL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
117–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL28322829117
PHI26273123107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home PHI
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 38 32 10 5
CJ McCollum 30 23 1 5
Dyson Daniels S 37 15 7 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 33 14 3 4
Jock Landale 22 10 7 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 27 10 7 2
Onyeka Okongwu S 26 8 10 2
Corey Kispert 17 5 5 1
Mouhamed Gueye 10 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 39 28 3 3
VJ Edgecombe S 34 20 9 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 32 17 3 3
Quentin Grimes 29 14 2 1
Andre Drummond S 28 10 14 3
Adem Bona 20 9 7 0
Jabari Walker 10 4 3 2
Trendon Watford 16 4 2 0
Dominick Barlow S 22 1 3 0
Cameron Payne 10 0 0 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 2-foot two point shot (Andre Drummond assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
15%
2 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI
11%
4 Adem Bona PHI
11%
5 Dominick Barlow PHI
11%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
10%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
10 Jalen Johnson ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
31%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 21.3 3.6 5.0
2 CJ McCollum ATL 21.1 4.2 3.6
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 20.4 8.4 6.8
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.4 4.0 5.0
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 18.8 6.7 2.9
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 13.5 5.6 3.6
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.7 4.6 2.0
8 Jock Landale ATL 12.2 6.4 1.4
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.3 5.4 5.6
10 Corey Kispert ATL 10.6 2.8 1.7
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.5 4.3 1.1
12 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.4 4.2 1.1
13 Quentin Grimes PHI 7.9 2.5 2.8
14 Buddy Hield ATL 7.8 2.3 1.5
15 Cameron Payne PHI 7.6 1.8 2.4
16 Andre Drummond PHI 5.7 6.4 0.9
17 Trendon Watford PHI 5.5 3.0 1.7
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.9 3.2 0.8
19 Adem Bona PHI 4.1 3.6 0.4
20 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.0 0.9 1.1
21 Dalen Terry PHI 4.0 1.9 1.3
22 Asa Newell ATL 3.9 1.9 0.5
23 Justin Edwards PHI 3.7 1.3 0.7
24 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.7 0.7 0.6
25 Jabari Walker PHI 2.3 1.5 0.5
26 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.9 0.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.