NBA games

HOU @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
105–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU24292725105
CHA33192623101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home CHA
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 36 35 8 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 31 15 7 1
Reed Sheppard 24 13 4 3
Alperen Sengun S 32 13 2 7
Amen Thompson S 37 9 7 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 23 8 4 1
Jae'Sean Tate 15 7 0 1
Tari Eason S 33 5 3 0
Clint Capela 9 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grant Williams S 29 20 9 1
Brandon Miller S 34 17 4 7
Kon Knueppel S 31 15 5 4
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 30 12 4 4
LaMelo Ball S 31 11 7 7
Tidjane Salaun 20 9 4 0
Sion James 19 8 4 1
Tre Mann 18 5 3 0
PJ Hall 14 2 4 1
Josh Green 14 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ryan Kalkbrenner · Layup (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Ryan Kalkbrenner makes driving layup (Brandon Miller assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
15%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
5 Kevin Durant HOU
9%
6 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
7 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
8 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
8%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
10 Tari Eason HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
12%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 22.0 6.2 3.4
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.4 3.9 6.2
3 Kevin Durant HOU 18.8 4.1 3.3
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 18.1 5.2 3.8
5 Miles Bridges CHA 15.6 4.9 3.1
6 Amen Thompson HOU 15.3 6.9 5.6
7 Alperen Sengun HOU 14.6 9.3 4.8
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.3 7.1 1.8
9 Tari Eason HOU 11.7 5.7 1.5
10 Reed Sheppard HOU 10.3 3.3 2.2
11 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.7 8.8 1.5
12 Grant Williams CHA 5.2 3.4 1.4
13 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 5.0 4.8 0.6
14 PJ Hall CHA 4.9 5.1 0.5
15 Josh Okogie HOU 4.3 2.6 0.7
16 Josh Green CHA 4.2 1.3 0.8
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 4.1 3.5 0.6
18 Sion James CHA 3.8 2.6 1.2
19 Tre Mann CHA 3.6 1.1 1.1
20 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 3.4 1.5 0.8
21 Clint Capela HOU 2.9 3.9 0.4
22 Isaiah Crawford HOU 2.7 1.3 0.5
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.2 1.2 0.3
24 Aaron Holiday HOU 2.1 0.8 0.7
25 Antonio Reeves CHA 2.0 0.7 0.3
26 Jeff Green HOU 1.8 0.7 0.4
27 Xavier Tillman CHA 1.3 0.8 0.3
28 Pat Connaughton CHA 1.1 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.