NBA games

DAL @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
104–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL31321922104
LAL36283228124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home LAL
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Max Christie S 30 19 1 4
Naji Marshall S 29 19 2 4
P.J. Washington S 34 18 4 2
Brandon Williams S 29 17 5 7
Klay Thompson 23 9 3 0
Khris Middleton 21 8 1 1
Marvin Bagley III 20 7 4 0
Tyus Jones 19 3 0 3
Daniel Gafford S 28 2 6 1
Dwight Powell 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 35 28 10 12
Rui Hachimura S 35 21 3 1
Austin Reaves 28 18 4 6
Jaxson Hayes S 34 16 7 4
Jake LaRavia S 26 11 3 2
Marcus Smart S 26 9 2 6
Luke Kennard 18 9 7 3
Jarred Vanderbilt 17 5 6 0
Maxi Kleber 13 5 1 0
Adou Thiero 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Marcus Smart · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Marcus Smart makes 6-foot fade away jump shot (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
13%
2 Daniel Gafford DAL
11%
3 Jaxson Hayes LAL
10%
4 Jake LaRavia LAL
9%
5 Max Christie DAL
9%
6 Marcus Smart LAL
9%
7 Kobe Bufkin LAL
8%
8 Tyus Jones DAL
8%
9 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
10 Luke Kennard LAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
17%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 24.2 5.3 7.4
2 Austin Reaves LAL 24.2 4.4 6.1
3 Naji Marshall DAL 20.8 6.4 4.2
4 Brandon Williams DAL 16.7 3.4 3.6
5 Max Christie DAL 15.9 3.8 2.6
6 Khris Middleton DAL 13.6 3.9 3.8
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.0 3.9 1.5
8 P.J. Washington DAL 11.2 5.2 1.7
9 Klay Thompson DAL 11.1 2.5 1.9
10 Marvin Bagley III DAL 10.7 7.2 1.5
11 Marcus Smart LAL 10.7 2.9 3.0
12 Luke Kennard LAL 10.3 3.2 2.0
13 Jake LaRavia LAL 10.2 3.7 2.0
14 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.4 7.0 1.2
15 Caleb Martin DAL 7.9 4.3 2.2
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.8 3.5 1.2
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.2 4.2 1.6
18 Drew Timme LAL 5.8 2.1 1.3
19 Kobe Bufkin LAL 5.3 2.1 1.0
20 AJ Johnson DAL 5.0 2.0 1.3
21 Tyus Jones DAL 4.1 1.4 2.6
22 Bronny James LAL 4.1 1.4 1.2
23 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.9 2.4 1.0
24 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.8 1.6 0.7
25 Dwight Powell DAL 3.7 3.7 1.0
26 Adou Thiero LAL 2.9 2.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.