NBA games

POR @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
135–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR28334034135
UTAH31322333119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home UTAH
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 33 31 9 7
Donovan Clingan S 31 23 18 7
Jerami Grant S 33 18 3 0
Scoot Henderson 20 15 1 4
Toumani Camara S 29 14 8 3
Caleb Love 15 11 0 2
Vit Krejci 25 11 5 2
Sidy Cissoko S 30 8 4 1
Rayan Rupert 16 2 4 0
Yang Hansen 3 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brice Sensabaugh S 36 28 4 0
Isaiah Collier S 36 15 2 9
Ace Bailey S 35 15 8 3
Kyle Filipowski S 30 15 9 3
Svi Mykhailiuk 17 14 1 3
Blake Hinson 25 11 1 1
Cody Williams S 25 9 2 3
Vince Williams Jr. 7 6 3 0
John Konchar 25 6 7 3
Oscar Tshiebwe 5 0 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cody Williams · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Cody Williams makes 3-foot dunk (Kyle Filipowski assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Isaiah Collier UTAH
15%
2 Deni Avdija POR
13%
3 Ace Bailey UTAH
12%
4 Jrue Holiday POR
11%
5 Jerami Grant POR
10%
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
10%
8 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
9%
9 Toumani Camara POR
9%
10 Caleb Love POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
20%
Layup
49%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 24.9 7.1 5.8
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.1 4.3 3.3
3 Isaiah Collier UTAH 20.0 5.5 10.3
4 Jrue Holiday POR 17.5 4.0 5.6
5 Jerami Grant POR 17.0 3.5 2.5
6 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 15.8 3.1 2.3
7 Scoot Henderson POR 15.6 4.0 6.9
8 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 15.0 11.6 6.3
9 Ace Bailey UTAH 14.8 5.0 2.3
10 Toumani Camara POR 13.9 6.0 2.3
11 Caleb Love POR 13.5 2.7 3.8
12 Donovan Clingan POR 13.1 11.5 2.2
13 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 11.5 8.4 2.2
14 Cody Williams UTAH 8.9 3.6 1.5
15 Vince Williams Jr. UTAH 8.4 3.3 3.4
16 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.3 2.2 1.4
17 Robert Williams III POR 8.2 7.8 1.5
18 Sidy Cissoko POR 8.0 3.8 1.9
19 Kevin Love UTAH 6.9 6.4 1.7
20 Vit Krejci POR 6.8 1.9 1.3
21 Blake Wesley POR 6.8 2.2 3.1
22 John Konchar UTAH 5.3 3.9 1.8
23 Rayan Rupert POR 4.6 2.1 1.0
24 Elijah Harkless UTAH 3.9 1.4 0.9
25 Javonte Cooke POR 3.0 1.7 0.6
26 Yang Hansen POR 2.9 1.8 0.8
27 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 2.8 3.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.