NBA games

MIL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
110–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL30372221110
OKC2530182093

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home OKC
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ousmane Dieng S 36 19 11 6
AJ Green S 38 17 2 3
Bobby Portis 29 15 12 3
Kyle Kuzma S 29 14 4 2
Kevin Porter Jr. S 32 12 3 7
Cam Thomas 20 12 1 2
Pete Nance 24 11 7 2
Jericho Sims S 20 8 5 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 6 2 3 0
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Isaiah Joe S 29 17 4 2
Chet Holmgren S 27 16 13 4
Jared McCain 24 13 3 2
Luguentz Dort S 28 9 2 1
Alex Caruso 20 9 3 1
Kenrich Williams S 23 9 8 1
Jaylin Williams 16 7 2 3
Aaron Wiggins 20 5 4 2
Cason Wallace S 28 3 2 3
Buddy Boeheim 5 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Joe · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
18%
2 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
14%
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL
13%
4 Myles Turner MIL
13%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
12%
6 Jericho Sims MIL
11%
7 Cason Wallace OKC
11%
8 AJ Green MIL
7%
9 Bobby Portis MIL
0%
10 Ousmane Dieng MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
38%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 18.1 6.1 7.4
2 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.7 8.2 1.8
3 Myles Turner MIL 15.3 7.5 2.1
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.0 6.5 4.2
5 Bobby Portis MIL 13.9 6.0 2.8
6 Cason Wallace OKC 12.3 3.0 2.8
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.3 3.3 2.6
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.8 2.3 1.9
9 Cam Thomas MIL 11.6 2.6 3.7
10 AJ Green MIL 10.6 3.1 2.0
11 Jaylin Williams OKC 9.8 5.5 2.7
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.6 3.5 1.9
13 Kenrich Williams OKC 9.5 3.4 1.9
14 Jared McCain OKC 7.4 1.7 1.5
15 Alex Caruso OKC 7.1 2.2 1.8
16 Pete Nance MIL 7.0 2.7 1.0
17 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 5.6 0.9 1.1
18 Jericho Sims MIL 5.4 4.8 1.3
19 Ousmane Dieng MIL 4.3 1.9 1.0
20 Gary Harris MIL 4.1 1.7 1.2
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.2 1.0 0.7
22 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.1 0.8 0.5
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.0 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.