NBA games

SA @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
126–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA31323132126
GS38292719113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home GS
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 32 27 0 8
Victor Wembanyama S 33 26 9 4
Keldon Johnson 29 21 6 2
Dylan Harper 29 14 5 8
Stephon Castle S 21 10 5 4
Devin Vassell S 28 8 4 2
Carter Bryant 9 8 5 1
Harrison Barnes 22 8 4 3
Luke Kornet 15 4 3 2
Julian Champagnie S 20 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Draymond Green S 30 17 12 8
De'Anthony Melton S 25 17 3 7
Moses Moody S 35 17 4 2
Brandin Podziemski 36 16 5 2
Quinten Post 13 12 3 2
Gary Payton II 14 10 0 5
Gui Santos S 30 9 5 6
Pat Spencer S 31 9 4 4
Al Horford 26 6 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moses Moody · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Moses Moody makes 27-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SA
13%
2 Stephon Castle SA
12%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
4 De'Anthony Melton GS
12%
5 Moses Moody GS
9%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Gui Santos GS
8%
8 Pat Spencer GS
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Draymond Green GS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
33%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.2 11.8 2.8
2 Stephon Castle SA 18.1 5.3 7.0
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 17.5 3.7 6.4
4 Kristaps Porzingis GS 16.7 4.6 2.3
5 De'Anthony Melton GS 14.1 3.6 3.3
6 Moses Moody GS 13.4 4.4 1.7
7 Keldon Johnson SA 13.0 5.2 2.1
8 Gui Santos GS 12.6 4.7 2.8
9 Dylan Harper SA 12.0 4.7 3.4
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.5 4.9 5.0
11 Devin Vassell SA 11.3 3.4 1.8
12 Julian Champagnie SA 10.9 4.3 1.5
13 Al Horford GS 10.1 5.1 2.8
14 Draymond Green GS 9.9 4.2 4.7
15 Harrison Barnes SA 9.0 2.8 1.6
16 Pat Spencer GS 9.0 2.9 3.8
17 Carter Bryant SA 6.6 2.8 0.8
18 Gary Payton II GS 5.9 2.7 1.1
19 Luke Kornet SA 5.6 6.6 1.6
20 Quinten Post GS 5.5 2.9 1.0
21 Will Richard GS 5.5 2.2 1.6
22 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.6 1.8 0.8
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.9 1.4 0.7
24 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.4 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.