NBA games

MEM @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
116–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM28262735116
DEN30303329122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home DEN
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
GG Jackson S 28 21 5 3
Ty Jerome S 21 19 1 7
Jaylen Wells S 24 17 1 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 23 14 5 0
Taylor Hendricks 20 10 2 1
Jahmai Mashack S 22 9 3 2
Kyle Anderson S 18 8 3 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. 18 8 0 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 26 5 3 2
Lawson Lovering 18 3 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 34 26 15 11
Jamal Murray S 33 23 6 7
Tim Hardaway Jr. 28 21 3 0
Christian Braun S 39 14 7 6
Julian Strawther S 25 11 1 2
Bruce Brown 29 10 3 2
Jonas Valanciunas 14 9 6 0
Cameron Johnson S 29 5 4 1
Jalen Pickett 9 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
14%
2 Peyton Watson DEN
13%
3 Ty Jerome MEM
12%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
5 Cameron Johnson DEN
9%
6 Kyle Anderson MEM
9%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
8 Christian Braun DEN
8%
9 Julian Strawther DEN
8%
10 GG Jackson MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
48%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.3 11.5 10.2
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.8 4.1 8.3
3 Peyton Watson DEN 19.2 4.9 2.8
4 Ty Jerome MEM 17.2 2.5 4.9
5 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.2 2.2 4.5
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 13.0 3.7 1.5
7 GG Jackson MEM 12.6 5.3 2.3
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.5 3.5 1.8
9 Cam Spencer MEM 12.5 2.8 5.6
10 Cameron Johnson DEN 12.4 4.0 2.3
11 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 11.2 7.5 1.9
12 Julian Strawther DEN 11.0 3.7 1.8
13 Bruce Brown DEN 10.0 3.8 1.9
14 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 8.9 2.8 1.9
15 Christian Braun DEN 8.7 3.7 2.0
16 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 7.8 3.5 1.0
17 Kyle Anderson MEM 7.5 3.5 2.6
18 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 6.2 2.2 2.7
19 Taylor Hendricks MEM 5.8 3.0 1.1
20 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.2 2.5 2.2
21 Jahmai Mashack MEM 4.5 1.6 1.0
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.7 3.3 0.5
23 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.4 1.4 0.7
24 Lawson Lovering MEM 2.9 2.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.