NBA games

OKC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
136–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC37383724136
PHX25272829109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home PHX
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 20 28 4 5
Isaiah Joe 18 21 1 1
Kenrich Williams 23 15 6 2
Chet Holmgren S 21 13 4 2
Aaron Wiggins 25 12 3 2
Jared McCain 22 12 4 1
Jaylin Williams 28 11 6 5
Luguentz Dort S 24 9 0 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 18 8 4 6
Cason Wallace S 26 4 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 24 23 5 4
Royce O'Neale S 24 12 2 2
Jordan Goodwin S 28 12 4 4
Jamaree Bouyea 27 11 3 6
Amir Coffey 20 9 5 2
Oso Ighodaro 17 8 4 2
Rasheer Fleming 20 8 3 2
Collin Gillespie S 23 6 5 3
Koby Brea 8 6 1 0
Khaman Maluach 12 6 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Royce O'Neale · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Royce O'Neale makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
16%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
15%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
4 Mark Williams PHX
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 Royce O'Neale PHX
10%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
9%
9 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
10 Isaiah Joe OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
46%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dillon Brooks PHX 22.7 4.9 2.5
2 Jalen Williams OKC 19.0 4.5 5.4
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.0 9.4 1.8
4 Collin Gillespie PHX 13.4 4.2 4.2
5 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.7 4.4 2.6
6 Mark Williams PHX 12.3 8.2 1.6
7 Cason Wallace OKC 11.9 3.5 2.7
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.9 2.8 1.8
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.8 4.1 3.1
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.0 4.5 1.8
11 Kenrich Williams OKC 9.6 4.3 1.7
12 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 8.9 8.1 3.6
13 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.5 4.7 2.2
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 8.4 5.6 2.4
15 Alex Caruso OKC 7.0 2.5 2.0
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.6 5.7 1.8
17 Jared McCain OKC 6.2 1.7 1.4
18 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.3 2.7 1.1
19 Amir Coffey PHX 4.9 1.9 0.8
20 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 4.5 2.1 1.2
21 Koby Brea PHX 3.0 1.3 1.5
22 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.0 1.1 0.4
23 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.3 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.