MIA @ NO
NBA
Smoothie King Center
·Final
123–111
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 31 | 27 | 38 | 27 | 123 |
| NO | 25 | 30 | 30 | 26 | 111 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA
away
home
NO
51%
49%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo S | 37 | 27 | 14 | 4 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 35 | 23 | 8 | 4 |
| Kel'el Ware S | 28 | 16 | 12 | 0 |
| Simone Fontecchio S | 27 | 15 | 4 | 1 |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | 25 | 11 | 3 | 4 |
| Davion Mitchell S | 28 | 9 | 1 | 5 |
| Myron Gardner S | 23 | 8 | 10 | 3 |
| Nikola Jovic | 18 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| Dru Smith | 20 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Kel'el Ware ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:50 Q1
"Kel'el Ware makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Zion Williamson
NO
17%
2
Trey Murphy III
NO
16%
3
Andrew Wiggins
MIA
10%
4
Bam Adebayo
MIA
10%
5
Saddiq Bey
NO
10%
6
Derik Queen
NO
8%
7
Kel'el Ware
MIA
7%
8
Herbert Jones
NO
7%
9
Davion Mitchell
MIA
7%
10
Simone Fontecchio
MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
33%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
22%
Layup
27%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 23.2 | 4.4 | 5.2 |
| 2 | Saddiq Bey | NO | 23.0 | 6.1 | 3.8 |
| 3 | Bam Adebayo | MIA | 21.3 | 11.3 | 3.4 |
| 4 | Zion Williamson | NO | 20.0 | 8.0 | 4.1 |
| 5 | Andrew Wiggins | MIA | 16.5 | 5.7 | 3.0 |
| 6 | Jaime Jaquez Jr. | MIA | 15.9 | 6.5 | 5.0 |
| 7 | Derik Queen | NO | 12.1 | 6.6 | 4.1 |
| 8 | Jeremiah Fears | NO | 9.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| 9 | Davion Mitchell | MIA | 9.7 | 2.9 | 5.2 |
| 10 | Bryce McGowens | NO | 9.0 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| 11 | Herbert Jones | NO | 8.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| 12 | Simone Fontecchio | MIA | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 |
| 13 | Kel'el Ware | MIA | 8.5 | 5.7 | 0.9 |
| 14 | Kasparas Jakucionis | MIA | 8.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| 15 | Jordan Poole | NO | 7.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| 16 | Dru Smith | MIA | 7.2 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| 17 | Yves Missi | NO | 6.6 | 6.7 | 1.4 |
| 18 | Nikola Jovic | MIA | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 19 | Myron Gardner | MIA | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| 20 | Karlo Matkovic | NO | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| 21 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 22 | Jahmir Young | MIA | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 23 | Kevon Looney | NO | 2.9 | 4.9 | 1.0 |
| 24 | Keshad Johnson | MIA | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 25 | Vladislav Goldin | MIA | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.