NBA games

POR @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
109–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR26253127109
MIN32293537133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MIN
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 30 23 5 5
Scoot Henderson 19 18 4 2
Vit Krejci 20 17 1 1
Deni Avdija S 27 11 5 3
Jerami Grant S 29 10 4 2
Toumani Camara S 32 9 8 2
Donovan Clingan S 28 8 9 1
Robert Williams III 12 5 5 1
Blake Wesley 24 4 4 6
Rayan Rupert 10 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 33 41 7 2
Jaden McDaniels S 33 21 6 6
Rudy Gobert S 28 17 8 1
Anthony Edwards S 33 14 4 2
Ayo Dosunmu 28 12 1 4
Naz Reid 24 11 7 2
Jaylen Clark 8 5 2 1
Julian Phillips 4 4 0 0
Donte DiVincenzo S 29 3 4 5
Bones Hyland 9 3 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 25-foot three pointer (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
2 Deni Avdija POR
11%
3 Julius Randle MIN
10%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
8 Jerami Grant POR
8%
9 Shaedon Sharpe POR
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
52%
Jumper
20%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.6 6.1 4.8
2 Deni Avdija POR 26.3 7.3 6.1
3 Julius Randle MIN 22.7 7.0 6.2
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.5 4.3 3.2
5 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 19.6 4.2 4.1
6 Jerami Grant POR 16.2 3.3 2.3
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.5 3.7 2.7
8 Jrue Holiday POR 14.6 3.9 5.2
9 Toumani Camara POR 14.6 5.9 2.6
10 Naz Reid MIN 14.3 6.9 3.0
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.8 4.0 4.1
12 Donovan Clingan POR 12.7 11.1 2.3
13 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.6 10.8 1.5
14 Bones Hyland MIN 10.7 2.9 3.1
15 Robert Williams III POR 8.5 7.9 1.4
16 Kris Murray POR 8.4 3.9 1.6
17 Blake Wesley POR 6.5 2.0 2.6
18 Vit Krejci POR 5.8 1.7 1.3
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.0 1.3 0.8
20 Rayan Rupert POR 4.6 2.2 1.0
21 Enrique Freeman MIN 3.8 2.0 0.6
22 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.7 1.7 0.8
23 Joan Beringer MIN 3.6 2.7 0.7
24 Julian Phillips MIN 3.1 1.2 0.6
25 Yang Hansen POR 2.9 1.7 0.8
26 Javonte Cooke POR 2.7 1.4 0.6
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.3 1.0 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.