NBA games

LAC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
105–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC22242435105
HOU29272026102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home HOU
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 33 27 12 4
Bennedict Mathurin 31 16 3 3
Kris Dunn S 37 16 2 6
Brook Lopez S 37 15 1 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 30 12 1 3
John Collins S 35 12 6 1
Jordan Miller 17 4 3 0
Kobe Sanders 10 3 1 1
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 10 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 36 21 8 6
Reed Sheppard 25 17 2 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 36 16 12 0
Alperen Sengun S 29 16 9 6
Tari Eason S 34 13 2 3
Amen Thompson S 41 12 6 5
Jae'Sean Tate 13 4 1 1
Clint Capela 16 3 5 0
Josh Okogie 10 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · Layup (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes running layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
5 John Collins LAC
11%
6 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
7 Tari Eason HOU
8%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
10 Brook Lopez LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
27%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 26.4 6.5 4.8
2 Kevin Durant HOU 24.9 4.9 4.1
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.6 9.9 5.9
4 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 16.5 4.9 2.9
5 John Collins LAC 15.8 5.9 1.6
6 Amen Thompson HOU 15.7 6.9 6.2
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.1 7.0 2.1
8 Jordan Miller LAC 11.7 4.0 2.0
9 Tari Eason HOU 11.7 6.0 1.6
10 Reed Sheppard HOU 11.5 3.4 2.2
11 Kobe Sanders LAC 9.6 3.5 2.6
12 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.2 3.6 1.2
13 Kris Dunn LAC 8.6 2.9 3.9
14 Brook Lopez LAC 8.4 3.5 1.3
15 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.3 2.1 1.7
16 Josh Okogie HOU 5.2 3.0 1.0
17 Clint Capela HOU 4.3 4.7 0.7
18 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 4.1 3.2 0.5
19 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 3.7 1.5 1.8
20 Dalano Banton LAC 3.7 1.5 0.9
21 Isaiah Jackson LAC 3.7 4.1 0.8
22 Cam Christie LAC 3.5 1.7 0.6
23 Isaiah Crawford HOU 3.1 1.4 0.5
24 Aaron Holiday HOU 2.4 0.8 0.7
25 Jeff Green HOU 2.0 0.8 0.4
26 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 1.9 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.