NBA games

DET @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
113–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET29382719113
TOR1933222195

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home TOR
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 30 28 7 9
Paul Reed S 33 22 5 3
Duncan Robinson S 25 13 4 1
Tobias Harris S 31 12 12 0
Caris LeVert 18 9 2 1
Kevin Huerter 21 9 3 0
Daniss Jenkins 17 8 3 1
Ausar Thompson S 24 4 4 4
Javonte Green 16 3 4 2
Tolu Smith 15 3 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 32 18 2 5
Scottie Barnes S 30 17 7 5
RJ Barrett S 30 16 3 4
Brandon Ingram S 32 13 0 0
Gradey Dick 16 10 2 0
Jakob Poeltl S 20 9 6 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 20 7 6 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 19 3 3 3
Alijah Martin 4 2 1 0
Jamal Shead 24 0 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul Reed · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Paul Reed makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
14%
2 Jalen Duren DET
14%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
5 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
8 Tobias Harris DET
8%
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
26%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.6 5.1 9.1
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.8 5.1 3.5
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.3 9.9 6.2
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.8 5.1 5.8
5 RJ Barrett TOR 19.4 6.0 3.8
6 Jalen Duren DET 17.2 9.4 2.0
7 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 15.1 5.7 2.5
8 Tobias Harris DET 13.3 4.7 2.4
9 Duncan Robinson DET 11.4 2.6 1.9
10 Daniss Jenkins DET 9.8 2.6 2.9
11 Ausar Thompson DET 9.7 6.3 2.8
12 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.9 3.6 1.1
13 Jakob Poeltl TOR 8.2 7.6 2.3
14 Jamal Shead TOR 7.3 2.5 4.4
15 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.9 2.5 1.4
16 Paul Reed DET 6.5 4.6 1.6
17 Kevin Huerter DET 6.5 3.5 2.3
18 Caris LeVert DET 6.2 2.3 2.4
19 Gradey Dick TOR 5.9 2.1 0.8
20 Javonte Green DET 5.6 2.5 0.8
21 Tolu Smith DET 4.5 5.3 0.8
22 Marcus Sasser DET 3.7 1.0 1.3
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 3.0 1.8 0.6
24 Chaz Lanier DET 2.9 0.9 0.4
25 Alijah Martin TOR 2.9 1.6 0.7
26 Jamison Battle TOR 2.8 1.4 0.6
27 Bobi Klintman DET 2.2 1.3 0.5
28 Garrett Temple TOR 1.0 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.