NBA games

NY @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
138–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY36363234138
PHI2319291889

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home PHI
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jose Alvarado 19 26 3 4
Mikal Bridges S 29 22 5 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 26 21 11 5
Mohamed Diawara 20 14 5 2
Mitchell Robinson 15 11 6 0
Landry Shamet S 24 9 1 5
Jalen Brunson S 30 8 4 4
Jordan Clarkson 13 8 0 0
Josh Hart S 29 6 7 9
Kevin McCullar Jr. 10 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 32 32 2 2
VJ Edgecombe S 32 14 4 2
Dominick Barlow S 31 13 4 1
MarJon Beauchamp 16 8 3 1
Adem Bona S 23 6 5 0
Trendon Watford 25 6 4 4
Justin Edwards 22 4 3 1
Andre Drummond 11 2 4 0
Charles Bassey 5 2 0 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 30 2 7 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Adem Bona · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Adem Bona makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
6 Dominick Barlow PHI
8%
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI
8%
8 Trendon Watford PHI
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
8%
10 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
42%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.6 4.1 6.5
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.6 3.9 6.7
3 Mikal Bridges NY 17.1 3.5 3.5
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 16.6 10.7 3.0
5 Josh Hart NY 14.3 7.3 5.0
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 12.9 5.5 3.8
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.4 4.7 1.9
8 Landry Shamet NY 10.2 2.6 1.8
9 Dominick Barlow PHI 8.7 4.3 1.2
10 Jose Alvarado NY 7.6 2.8 2.7
11 Andre Drummond PHI 6.2 6.4 1.0
12 Jordan Clarkson NY 5.9 1.8 1.2
13 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.7 8.3 0.9
14 Trendon Watford PHI 5.7 3.2 1.6
15 Tyler Kolek NY 5.7 1.5 3.1
16 Mohamed Diawara NY 5.1 1.8 0.8
17 Adem Bona PHI 4.9 3.9 0.4
18 Charles Bassey PHI 4.6 7.3 0.6
19 Justin Edwards PHI 4.2 1.4 0.7
20 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.7 3.7 0.6
21 Dalen Terry PHI 3.6 2.1 1.0
22 Patrick Baldwin Jr. PHI 3.6 1.7 0.8
23 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.6 1.2 0.9
24 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 2.4 1.4 1.5
25 Johni Broome PHI 2.2 1.6 0.5
26 Dillon Jones NY 1.5 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.