NBA games

IND @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
115–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND18353131115
BKN31332620110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home BKN
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarace Walker S 32 23 5 3
Micah Potter 27 19 12 1
Ethan Thompson 27 15 5 3
Taelon Peter 27 14 4 3
Kam Jones S 31 11 2 6
Jay Huff S 31 11 4 1
Quenton Jackson 19 9 2 5
Ben Sheppard S 19 9 1 4
Kobe Brown S 28 4 7 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nolan Traore S 32 20 2 8
Day'Ron Sharpe S 31 19 12 5
Ziaire Williams S 28 19 5 1
Danny Wolf 23 14 8 0
Egor Demin S 32 13 5 5
Ben Saraf 17 12 4 2
Drake Powell 20 6 1 1
Terance Mann S 25 4 2 1
Jalen Wilson 16 3 2 0
Ochai Agbaji 16 0 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarace Walker · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jarace Walker makes 10-foot fade away jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
16%
2 Andrew Nembhard IND
14%
3 Noah Clowney BKN
10%
4 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
5 Nolan Traore BKN
9%
6 Danny Wolf BKN
8%
7 Quenton Jackson IND
8%
8 Micah Potter IND
8%
9 Terance Mann BKN
8%
10 Egor Demin BKN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
54%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 25.0 5.9 4.4
2 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.6 4.1 8.8
3 Jarace Walker IND 16.8 5.4 2.7
4 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.1 4.1 2.6
5 Noah Clowney BKN 12.9 5.5 1.9
6 Nolan Traore BKN 12.8 3.1 5.0
7 Egor Demin BKN 12.4 3.1 2.7
8 Danny Wolf BKN 10.8 5.9 2.6
9 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.5 3.3 1.7
10 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 10.0 8.1 2.0
11 Terance Mann BKN 9.1 3.0 3.1
12 Quenton Jackson IND 8.7 2.3 1.5
13 T.J. McConnell IND 8.5 2.3 3.7
14 Jay Huff IND 7.9 3.9 1.3
15 Jalen Wilson BKN 7.1 2.8 1.4
16 Micah Potter IND 6.5 4.0 1.6
17 Ben Sheppard IND 6.3 2.2 1.7
18 Drake Powell BKN 6.3 2.3 1.4
19 Ben Saraf BKN 6.1 2.0 3.0
20 Ochai Agbaji BKN 4.2 1.5 0.6
21 Kam Jones IND 4.2 1.6 1.5
22 Kobe Brown IND 3.9 1.7 0.7
23 Josh Minott BKN 2.7 1.0 0.5
24 Ethan Thompson IND 2.5 0.9 0.6
25 Taelon Peter IND 2.1 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.