NBA games

CHI @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
105–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI27172635105
BOS36362626124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home BOS
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rob Dillingham 30 16 1 7
Collin Sexton S 32 15 3 1
Matas Buzelis S 29 15 8 4
Guerschon Yabusele S 25 13 2 2
Patrick Williams S 35 12 3 6
Jaden Ivey 29 10 3 4
Anfernee Simons S 28 7 5 1
Leonard Miller 7 5 3 0
Nick Richards 21 5 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard 34 26 5 8
Jaylen Brown S 29 24 4 4
Nikola Vucevic 26 19 11 3
Jordan Walsh 29 16 6 2
Sam Hauser S 22 12 2 0
Baylor Scheierman S 24 10 5 1
Derrick White S 30 9 4 9
Neemias Queta S 15 8 6 1
Luka Garza 7 0 0 0
Ron Harper Jr. 16 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Sexton · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
2 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
3 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
4 Derrick White BOS
11%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
6 Luka Garza BOS
8%
7 Anfernee Simons CHI
8%
8 Guerschon Yabusele CHI
8%
9 Jaden Ivey CHI
8%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
50%
Jumper
12%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 28.3 8.7 5.2
2 Payton Pritchard BOS 21.0 3.4 5.5
3 Derrick White BOS 17.7 4.1 6.4
4 Nikola Vucevic BOS 17.4 8.2 3.8
5 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.1 5.9 2.7
6 Josh Giddey CHI 16.0 6.3 7.5
7 Anfernee Simons CHI 15.5 3.2 3.0
8 Tre Jones CHI 12.4 3.2 6.1
9 Collin Sexton CHI 11.6 2.5 2.5
10 Sam Hauser BOS 10.7 4.0 1.8
11 Neemias Queta BOS 10.3 8.6 2.4
12 Luka Garza BOS 8.5 3.9 1.6
13 Patrick Williams CHI 7.7 2.9 1.4
14 Jaden Ivey CHI 7.7 3.0 1.8
15 Baylor Scheierman BOS 7.0 5.8 2.1
16 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.6 3.2 0.9
17 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.2 3.0 1.0
18 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 3.8 2.7 0.7
19 Nick Richards CHI 3.7 3.5 0.6
20 Rob Dillingham CHI 3.6 1.8 1.2
21 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.5 2.0 0.9
22 Leonard Miller CHI 2.7 1.4 0.4
23 Amari Williams BOS 2.7 2.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.