NBA games

MIL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
116–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL20323628116
ORL24273225108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home ORL
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas 25 34 4 2
Kevin Porter Jr. S 39 18 10 11
Jericho Sims S 36 17 11 2
Ousmane Dieng 23 17 3 0
Kyle Kuzma S 30 15 7 2
AJ Green S 30 6 1 2
Myles Turner S 31 5 8 2
Bobby Portis 16 4 2 0
Pete Nance 4 0 0 0
Gary Harris 6 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 39 31 2 5
Paolo Banchero S 39 17 4 2
Jalen Suggs S 35 16 1 10
Anthony Black S 25 13 3 3
Moritz Wagner 17 12 5 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 6 11 3
Franz Wagner 21 5 0 3
Tristan da Silva 23 5 4 0
Jase Richardson 7 3 0 1
Noah Penda 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jericho Sims · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Jericho Sims makes 1-foot dunk (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
13%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
12%
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL
12%
4 Anthony Black ORL
12%
5 Myles Turner MIL
12%
6 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
9 AJ Green MIL
7%
10 Franz Wagner ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
25%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.9 6.9 5.1
2 Desmond Bane ORL 21.6 3.1 3.5
3 Franz Wagner ORL 19.6 5.1 3.6
4 Anthony Black ORL 18.6 4.0 4.2
5 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 18.6 5.4 7.3
6 Myles Turner MIL 16.0 7.2 2.1
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.9 5.9 4.1
8 Bobby Portis MIL 15.1 6.5 2.7
9 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.8 4.7 6.3
10 AJ Green MIL 11.0 3.1 1.8
11 Cam Thomas MIL 10.0 2.2 3.8
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.0 5.4 1.8
13 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.6 2.9 0.9
14 Pete Nance MIL 7.9 3.2 1.1
15 Tristan da Silva ORL 6.4 2.5 1.4
16 Noah Penda ORL 6.0 2.7 1.4
17 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 5.8 1.0 1.0
18 Jase Richardson ORL 4.7 1.8 1.2
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.5 4.5 0.5
20 Jericho Sims MIL 4.2 4.1 1.0
21 Gary Harris MIL 4.2 1.8 1.2
22 Jevon Carter ORL 3.8 1.8 0.6
23 Ousmane Dieng MIL 3.6 1.9 1.0
24 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.4 2.3 0.8
25 Jamal Cain ORL 3.1 1.0 0.7
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.7 1.4 0.7
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.5 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.