NBA games

WSH @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
113–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH24372824113
CLE40363230138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CLE
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyshawn George S 24 17 5 3
Jamir Watkins S 29 16 3 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 24 13 0 2
Justin Champagnie 24 12 8 2
Sharife Cooper 24 11 5 5
Jaden Hardy 15 11 2 1
Tre Johnson S 18 10 3 2
Bub Carrington S 22 8 3 4
Kadary Richmond 6 5 2 1
Will Riley 29 4 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Sam Merrill S 25 32 5 1
Donovan Mitchell S 28 30 3 5
Jarrett Allen S 27 21 9 1
James Harden S 28 13 4 11
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 16 8 5 0
Dennis Schroder 18 7 3 2
Jaylon Tyson S 21 7 5 1
Thomas Bryant 16 6 6 1
Keon Ellis 27 6 4 3
Tyrese Proctor 5 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes driving layup (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
15%
2 James Harden CLE
14%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
4 Kyshawn George WSH
11%
5 Jaylon Tyson CLE
10%
6 Tre Johnson WSH
9%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
8 Justin Champagnie WSH
7%
9 Sam Merrill CLE
7%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
23%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
23%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.6 4.3 7.6
2 James Harden CLE 26.2 5.4 9.4
3 Jaylon Tyson CLE 18.1 5.4 3.9
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.0 10.7 2.2
5 Kyshawn George WSH 15.0 4.9 4.6
6 Tre Johnson WSH 13.6 2.5 2.8
7 Dennis Schroder CLE 13.0 3.1 4.1
8 Bub Carrington WSH 12.7 2.6 4.3
9 Will Riley WSH 12.4 3.2 2.4
10 Sam Merrill CLE 11.5 2.5 2.2
11 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.5 5.4 1.3
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.9 3.9 2.1
13 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 8.2 3.5 1.6
14 Jamir Watkins WSH 7.4 5.0 1.4
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.9 3.2 3.4
16 Jaden Hardy WSH 6.1 1.3 1.0
17 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.0 3.1 1.2
18 Keon Ellis CLE 5.9 2.2 1.1
19 Sharife Cooper WSH 5.3 1.9 1.6
20 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.4 1.0 1.5
21 Anthony Gill WSH 3.1 2.5 0.5
22 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.1 1.7 0.7
23 Tristan Enaruna CLE 3.1 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.