NBA games

ATL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
107–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL27222632107
CHA35233121110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CHA
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dyson Daniels S 25 21 3 4
Jalen Johnson S 34 19 13 9
Onyeka Okongwu S 29 18 3 0
CJ McCollum 32 17 6 8
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 40 10 3 4
Jock Landale 19 9 3 0
Mouhamed Gueye 9 6 3 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 23 5 3 1
Corey Kispert 23 2 3 2
Asa Newell 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 36 31 9 2
LaMelo Ball S 32 24 4 6
Kon Knueppel S 30 18 6 4
PJ Hall 17 11 10 0
Grant Williams S 32 7 8 5
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 24 5 6 1
Tre Mann 16 5 0 0
Josh Green 19 3 0 0
Sion James 17 3 3 3
Tidjane Salaun 15 3 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Miller CHA
13%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
4 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
7%
9 CJ McCollum ATL
7%
10 Asa Newell ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
21%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 25.1 11.4 8.6
2 Brandon Miller CHA 22.6 5.7 4.0
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.3 4.3 7.0
4 CJ McCollum ATL 20.3 3.6 3.6
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 19.7 5.9 4.2
6 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.4 3.8 5.0
7 Miles Bridges CHA 17.5 5.6 3.8
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.9 7.1 3.1
9 Jock Landale ATL 13.2 6.8 2.0
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.2 5.9 5.9
11 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.7 9.9 1.9
12 Corey Kispert ATL 10.7 2.9 1.9
13 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.1 4.7 1.3
14 Buddy Hield ATL 8.5 2.7 1.7
15 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.9 5.6 1.0
16 Grant Williams CHA 6.8 3.4 1.8
17 PJ Hall CHA 6.0 4.8 1.0
18 Josh Green CHA 5.9 2.0 1.3
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.8 3.7 1.1
20 Sion James CHA 5.5 3.2 1.8
21 Tre Mann CHA 5.4 1.8 1.5
22 Asa Newell ATL 5.4 2.6 0.7
23 Gabe Vincent ATL 5.1 1.4 1.3
24 Tidjane Salaun CHA 4.4 3.6 0.7
25 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.7 0.7 0.6
26 Xavier Tillman CHA 2.1 1.3 0.4
27 Pat Connaughton CHA 1.6 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.