NBA games

SA @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
136–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA47373121136
LAL30252627108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home LAL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 26 40 12 2
Carter Bryant 27 16 4 3
Dylan Harper 27 15 3 6
Harrison Barnes 21 11 3 2
Devin Vassell S 24 9 2 1
Julian Champagnie S 18 8 2 2
De'Aaron Fox S 17 8 2 6
Kelly Olynyk 12 8 1 0
Jordan McLaughlin 15 7 2 2
Keldon Johnson 21 6 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Drew Timme 20 14 2 0
Luke Kennard S 28 14 2 5
Jaxson Hayes S 17 13 4 3
Bronny James 25 12 3 6
Jake LaRavia S 18 10 2 1
Dalton Knecht 16 9 5 1
Kobe Bufkin S 24 7 2 1
Maxi Kleber 13 6 3 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 16 6 4 2
Rui Hachimura S 27 6 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Champagnie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Julian Champagnie makes 22-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
17%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
17%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
16%
4 Devin Vassell SA
13%
5 Jake LaRavia LAL
13%
6 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
7 Julian Champagnie SA
11%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
0%
9 Kelly Olynyk SA
0%
10 Keldon Johnson SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
31%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 21.9 11.4 2.6
2 Stephon Castle SA 18.4 5.7 7.3
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 18.1 3.8 7.2
4 Keldon Johnson SA 12.9 4.9 2.2
5 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.7 3.9 1.4
6 Dylan Harper SA 11.4 4.3 3.2
7 Julian Champagnie SA 11.1 4.5 1.5
8 Devin Vassell SA 10.7 3.4 1.8
9 Jake LaRavia LAL 10.0 4.1 1.7
10 Harrison Barnes SA 9.3 2.6 1.9
11 Luke Kennard LAL 8.4 3.1 1.5
12 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.0 3.7 0.9
13 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.0 4.1 1.5
14 Luke Kornet SA 5.6 6.0 1.6
15 Carter Bryant SA 5.0 2.4 0.7
16 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.3 2.3 0.9
17 Drew Timme LAL 3.3 1.2 0.8
18 Kobe Bufkin LAL 3.0 1.1 0.5
19 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.8 1.5 0.9
20 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.5 0.8 0.4
21 Adou Thiero LAL 2.5 1.7 0.7
22 Chris Manon LAL 2.4 1.7 0.5
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.2 0.9 0.7
24 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 2.2 0.5 0.7
25 Jeremy Sochan SA 2.1 1.0 0.6
26 Bronny James LAL 2.0 0.6 0.6
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.9 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.