NBA games

DAL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
111–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL16322736111
PHX36293124120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home PHX
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naji Marshall 36 31 4 2
Cooper Flagg S 36 27 5 2
Khris Middleton 22 13 5 2
P.J. Washington S 26 13 5 1
Marvin Bagley III 24 9 8 2
Brandon Williams 18 5 2 2
Max Christie S 31 5 6 3
Daniel Gafford S 17 4 4 0
Caleb Martin 11 2 1 0
Tyus Jones S 15 2 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 31 23 4 1
Devin Booker S 32 19 4 6
Mark Williams S 25 13 9 1
Royce O'Neale S 23 12 4 2
Ryan Dunn 17 12 4 2
Jalen Green 20 12 1 4
Oso Ighodaro 23 10 10 4
Jordan Goodwin 25 8 3 3
Amir Coffey 13 6 2 1
Collin Gillespie S 31 5 8 8

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
11%
2 Devin Booker PHX
11%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
10%
4 Naji Marshall DAL
10%
5 Mark Williams PHX
9%
6 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
7 Max Christie DAL
8%
8 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
9 Khris Middleton DAL
7%
10 Amir Coffey PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
36%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.7 3.9 6.7
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 25.7 7.2 4.3
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 22.3 4.8 2.6
4 Naji Marshall DAL 19.3 6.7 4.1
5 Brandon Williams DAL 18.1 4.0 3.6
6 Max Christie DAL 16.8 3.6 2.8
7 Collin Gillespie PHX 15.9 3.9 4.0
8 Mark Williams PHX 12.3 8.2 1.7
9 Khris Middleton DAL 11.7 3.7 3.2
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.6 3.8 3.2
11 Marvin Bagley III DAL 10.3 6.9 1.3
12 P.J. Washington DAL 10.1 5.2 1.5
13 Jalen Green PHX 9.7 2.4 2.0
14 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.1 4.5 2.4
15 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.4 7.4 1.1
16 Caleb Martin DAL 7.9 4.8 2.5
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.5 5.0 2.1
18 AJ Johnson DAL 5.3 2.2 1.4
19 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 5.1 2.3 1.5
20 Ryan Dunn PHX 4.0 2.3 0.9
21 Dwight Powell DAL 3.9 4.4 1.0
22 Amir Coffey PHX 3.4 1.1 0.5
23 Tyus Jones DAL 3.4 1.1 2.2
24 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.0 1.2 0.5
25 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.4 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.