NBA games

LAC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
95–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC2626202395
HOU27242724102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home HOU
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 31 24 8 3
John Collins S 31 17 8 1
Jordan Miller 17 9 4 2
Bennedict Mathurin 26 9 7 4
Brook Lopez S 29 7 2 0
Kris Dunn S 28 6 2 7
Derrick Jones Jr. S 27 6 1 0
Isaiah Jackson 5 5 1 0
Dalano Banton 5 4 1 2
TyTy Washington Jr. 5 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 38 26 6 3
Alperen Sengun S 35 22 7 5
Amen Thompson S 37 16 6 1
Reed Sheppard 30 16 6 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 38 13 10 3
Tari Eason S 30 6 5 1
Dorian Finney-Smith 20 3 1 2
Clint Capela 13 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
6 John Collins LAC
9%
7 Tari Eason HOU
7%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
9 Reed Sheppard HOU
7%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
34%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 27.2 6.1 5.1
2 Kevin Durant HOU 25.0 4.7 4.6
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.1 10.2 6.2
4 John Collins LAC 16.6 5.0 1.8
5 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 16.2 4.6 2.6
6 Amen Thompson HOU 16.0 7.9 6.9
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.7 6.5 2.4
8 Tari Eason HOU 13.0 6.7 1.9
9 Jordan Miller LAC 12.1 3.9 2.0
10 Reed Sheppard HOU 10.6 2.8 2.3
11 Kobe Sanders LAC 10.1 3.4 2.5
12 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.4 3.7 1.5
13 Kris Dunn LAC 8.6 3.0 3.8
14 Brook Lopez LAC 7.0 3.3 1.4
15 Josh Okogie HOU 5.6 3.2 1.2
16 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.5 2.1 1.7
17 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.2 2.5 1.0
18 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.0 1.8 0.9
19 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 4.0 2.8 0.5
20 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 3.9 1.5 2.1
21 Clint Capela HOU 3.9 4.7 0.7
22 Cam Christie LAC 3.9 1.6 0.8
23 Isaiah Crawford HOU 3.3 1.4 0.6
24 Aaron Holiday HOU 2.6 0.9 0.7
25 Isaiah Jackson LAC 2.4 3.3 0.5
26 Jeff Green HOU 2.2 0.8 0.4
27 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.1 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.