NBA games

IND @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
137–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
IND3231313013137
NY3336243110134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home NY
9% 91%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 37 30 6 4
Andrew Nembhard S 37 24 4 10
Quenton Jackson S 28 19 6 3
T.J. McConnell 16 13 1 3
Aaron Nesmith S 37 11 8 0
Micah Potter S 29 10 2 3
Ben Sheppard 17 10 7 2
Jay Huff 24 10 2 3
Kobe Brown 19 8 6 1
Kam Jones 21 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 42 40 5 8
Mikal Bridges S 43 22 6 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 22 14 3
Landry Shamet S 38 17 2 1
Josh Hart S 41 15 11 11
Ariel Hukporti 21 7 5 1
Jordan Clarkson 13 4 0 0
Jose Alvarado 18 4 1 5
Mohamed Diawara 18 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
15%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
12%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
7 Josh Hart NY
9%
8 Jay Huff IND
8%
9 Landry Shamet NY
7%
10 Micah Potter IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
27%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.2 4.2 6.4
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.7 5.8 4.5
3 Andrew Nembhard IND 19.4 4.1 8.0
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 16.9 11.5 3.3
5 Mikal Bridges NY 16.4 3.5 3.6
6 Jarace Walker IND 15.7 5.3 2.5
7 Josh Hart NY 14.2 6.8 4.3
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.8 3.8 2.4
9 Landry Shamet NY 9.8 2.6 2.0
10 Obi Toppin IND 8.9 4.0 1.9
11 T.J. McConnell IND 7.7 2.3 4.0
12 Jose Alvarado NY 7.5 3.0 2.7
13 Jay Huff IND 7.3 3.9 1.1
14 Jordan Clarkson NY 6.6 2.2 1.3
15 Tyler Kolek NY 6.4 1.7 3.3
16 Quenton Jackson IND 6.1 1.3 1.3
17 Ben Sheppard IND 5.4 1.5 1.5
18 Micah Potter IND 5.3 3.7 1.2
19 Mohamed Diawara NY 5.3 1.7 0.9
20 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.6 3.2 0.6
21 Kam Jones IND 3.4 1.4 1.2
22 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 3.0 1.6 1.6
23 Trey Jemison III NY 2.8 2.4 0.7
24 Kobe Brown IND 2.0 0.8 0.3
25 Dillon Jones NY 1.9 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.