NBA games

PHI @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
118–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI31342231118
POR29354922135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home POR
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 32 30 1 4
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 36 19 4 1
Justin Edwards 25 12 4 2
Trendon Watford S 25 12 2 3
Andre Drummond S 27 11 7 5
VJ Edgecombe S 33 11 6 3
MarJon Beauchamp 20 10 4 4
Adem Bona 17 7 1 0
Kyle Lowry 18 6 1 1
Johni Broome 5 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Toumani Camara S 27 30 3 1
Deni Avdija S 27 26 10 8
Jerami Grant S 25 15 4 2
Donovan Clingan S 28 15 7 3
Jrue Holiday S 28 13 7 7
Scoot Henderson 20 12 2 7
Robert Williams III 15 8 6 2
Vit Krejci 23 5 2 3
Blake Wesley 13 4 1 3
Rayan Rupert 6 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes driving layup (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
9%
3 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
4 Deni Avdija POR
9%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
6 Jerami Grant POR
8%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
8 Shaedon Sharpe POR
7%
9 Dominick Barlow PHI
7%
10 VJ Edgecombe PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
50%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 30.8 8.2 5.9
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.3 3.8 7.6
3 Deni Avdija POR 25.0 6.6 6.0
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.4 4.3 3.3
5 Jerami Grant POR 17.9 3.2 2.5
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.6 4.8 2.2
7 Jrue Holiday POR 14.3 3.6 5.2
8 Toumani Camara POR 13.7 6.0 2.7
9 VJ Edgecombe PHI 13.3 5.7 4.2
10 Donovan Clingan POR 12.8 11.2 2.5
11 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.4 4.5 1.4
12 Sidy Cissoko POR 9.1 3.5 1.9
13 Robert Williams III POR 8.6 7.6 1.4
14 Blake Wesley POR 6.6 2.1 2.9
15 Vit Krejci POR 5.4 1.5 1.2
16 Andre Drummond PHI 5.4 5.7 0.8
17 Trendon Watford PHI 5.3 3.1 1.7
18 Charles Bassey PHI 5.1 7.6 0.8
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 1.3 0.9
20 Rayan Rupert POR 4.5 2.1 1.2
21 Adem Bona PHI 4.4 4.1 0.6
22 Justin Edwards PHI 3.8 1.3 0.8
23 Patrick Baldwin Jr. PHI 3.1 1.0 0.8
24 Yang Hansen POR 2.8 1.6 0.8
25 Johni Broome PHI 2.0 1.5 0.5
26 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.9 0.5 0.8
27 Javonte Cooke POR 1.9 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.