NBA games

OKC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
119–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC31362626119
LAL30283319110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home LAL
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 24 23 3 1
Isaiah Joe 27 19 3 2
Alex Caruso 24 17 1 2
Chet Holmgren S 31 13 10 2
Cason Wallace S 31 12 4 6
Jaylin Williams 19 11 3 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 22 10 9 6
Luguentz Dort S 29 7 5 1
Jared McCain 14 7 3 0
Aaron Wiggins 15 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 36 22 6 10
Marcus Smart S 29 19 3 3
Austin Reaves 29 16 2 7
Jake LaRavia S 24 14 4 1
Rui Hachimura S 33 12 5 2
Jaxson Hayes 14 12 4 1
Luke Kennard 24 7 1 1
Deandre Ayton S 29 6 10 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 17 2 2 0
Maxi Kleber 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cason Wallace · Layup (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Cason Wallace makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
2 LeBron James LAL
10%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
8%
7 Jaxson Hayes LAL
8%
8 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
9 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
31%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Austin Reaves LAL 23.0 4.5 5.4
2 LeBron James LAL 22.6 5.4 6.9
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.5 9.4 1.9
4 Jalen Williams OKC 16.4 3.9 5.7
5 Aaron Wiggins OKC 13.3 4.3 2.5
6 Cason Wallace OKC 11.9 3.3 2.4
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.6 3.9 1.4
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.2 7.9 1.1
9 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.1 2.8 1.8
10 Marcus Smart LAL 10.4 3.0 2.7
11 Kenrich Williams OKC 10.3 4.6 2.2
12 Jake LaRavia LAL 9.8 4.1 1.9
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.8 4.2 1.9
14 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.6 7.7 3.5
15 Luke Kennard LAL 8.5 3.3 1.5
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 7.5 5.3 2.5
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.2 3.5 0.9
18 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.1 4.2 1.7
19 Alex Caruso OKC 6.1 2.3 2.0
20 Jared McCain OKC 6.1 1.3 1.5
21 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.3 2.4 0.9
22 Kobe Bufkin LAL 3.0 1.1 0.5
23 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.7 0.9 0.4
24 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.7 1.0 0.5
25 Bronny James LAL 2.3 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.