NBA games

MEM @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
113–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM32333315113
GS32252829114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home GS
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ty Jerome S 20 19 3 7
Jahmai Mashack 22 17 2 1
Taylor Hendricks 25 15 10 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 22 15 1 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 20 11 0 4
Jaylen Wells S 26 10 3 0
Javon Small 21 8 3 1
Kyle Anderson S 26 8 4 0
GG Jackson S 23 6 4 2
Cam Spencer 24 2 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pat Spencer S 32 17 3 7
Brandin Podziemski 32 16 4 5
Al Horford 26 16 9 6
Gui Santos S 30 16 8 2
Moses Moody S 28 15 1 3
Draymond Green S 24 14 4 2
De'Anthony Melton S 25 10 3 2
Gary Payton II 24 7 4 2
Will Richard 15 3 4 0
Quinten Post 5 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Anderson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:47 Q1
"Kyle Anderson makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ty Jerome MEM
12%
2 De'Anthony Melton GS
10%
3 Cedric Coward MEM
9%
4 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
8%
5 Kyle Anderson MEM
8%
6 Moses Moody GS
8%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Jahmai Mashack MEM
7%
10 Gui Santos GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
26%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kristaps Porzingis GS 16.8 4.9 2.4
2 Ty Jerome MEM 16.2 2.6 4.7
3 De'Anthony Melton GS 13.7 3.6 3.3
4 Moses Moody GS 13.4 4.5 1.6
5 Cedric Coward MEM 13.0 5.4 3.2
6 Cam Spencer MEM 12.7 2.8 5.6
7 GG Jackson MEM 12.6 5.5 2.1
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.5 4.8 4.8
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.4 3.6 1.8
10 Gui Santos GS 10.0 4.0 2.2
11 Al Horford GS 9.8 5.2 2.7
12 Draymond Green GS 8.8 4.3 4.7
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 8.5 2.9 1.9
14 Javon Small MEM 7.8 2.9 3.2
15 Kyle Anderson MEM 7.2 3.6 2.8
16 Pat Spencer GS 7.0 2.6 3.1
17 Quinten Post GS 6.6 3.6 1.1
18 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 6.6 2.5 2.8
19 Gary Payton II GS 5.8 2.8 1.1
20 Will Richard GS 5.6 2.1 2.2
21 Taylor Hendricks MEM 4.7 2.3 1.0
22 Jahmai Mashack MEM 3.4 1.4 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.