NBA games

CLE @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
119–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE26283332119
DEN30293325117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DEN
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 32 1 10
James Harden S 36 22 10 7
Jarrett Allen S 35 22 13 1
Jaylon Tyson S 31 16 3 1
Sam Merrill S 25 9 2 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 13 6 1 0
Dennis Schroder 25 5 2 3
Thomas Bryant 13 5 3 1
Keon Ellis 20 2 3 1
Craig Porter Jr. 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 33 22 14 11
Julian Strawther S 29 20 6 0
Christian Braun S 32 20 5 2
Jamal Murray S 36 17 8 11
Jonas Valanciunas 15 12 4 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 29 12 1 0
Cameron Johnson S 29 10 4 1
Jalen Pickett 12 3 0 0
Bruce Brown 25 1 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
15%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
3 James Harden CLE
10%
4 Peyton Watson DEN
10%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
6 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE
9%
8 Christian Braun DEN
7%
9 Cameron Johnson DEN
7%
10 Julian Strawther DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
45%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.2 11.6 9.7
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.2 4.2 6.7
3 James Harden CLE 25.5 4.5 8.6
4 Jamal Murray DEN 25.1 3.9 7.6
5 Peyton Watson DEN 19.3 4.8 2.8
6 Jaylon Tyson CLE 17.2 5.6 3.7
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.3 8.9 2.0
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 12.8 3.8 1.6
9 Cameron Johnson DEN 12.5 3.9 2.5
10 Dennis Schroder CLE 11.8 2.7 3.7
11 Sam Merrill CLE 11.0 2.3 2.1
12 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 10.7 7.1 1.8
13 Bruce Brown DEN 10.3 3.7 1.9
14 Julian Strawther DEN 9.1 3.2 1.6
15 Christian Braun DEN 8.0 3.7 2.1
16 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 8.0 3.7 1.5
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.6 2.9 4.2
18 Jalen Pickett DEN 6.3 2.8 2.8
19 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.7 2.8 1.0
20 Keon Ellis CLE 5.5 1.7 0.9
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.5 3.6 0.7
22 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.1 1.7 0.8
23 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.1 0.8 1.4
24 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.8 1.5 0.6
25 Tristan Enaruna CLE 2.7 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.