NBA games

SAC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
94120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2620212794
NO31303128120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home NO
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Maxime Raynaud S 38 21 19 1
Russell Westbrook S 21 17 2 2
Devin Carter 30 12 3 4
Nique Clifford S 37 10 5 6
DeMar DeRozan S 20 8 1 1
Precious Achiuwa S 20 8 3 0
Dylan Cardwell 32 6 11 1
Daeqwon Plowden 28 5 3 2
Drew Eubanks 6 4 1 1
Doug McDermott 8 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 29 21 2 7
Jeremiah Fears 30 20 4 3
Zion Williamson S 27 18 5 6
Karlo Matkovic 19 12 9 1
Saddiq Bey S 26 12 4 1
Derik Queen S 24 8 5 1
Bryce McGowens 24 8 1 3
Herbert Jones S 30 8 4 6
Yves Missi 22 7 5 1
Jordan Hawkins 5 6 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DeMar DeRozan · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"DeMar DeRozan makes 20-foot jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
13%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
6 Saddiq Bey NO
8%
7 Russell Westbrook SAC
7%
8 Derik Queen NO
7%
9 Maxime Raynaud SAC
6%
10 Herbert Jones NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
22%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trey Murphy III NO 22.8 4.4 4.5
2 Saddiq Bey NO 22.6 5.9 3.8
3 Russell Westbrook SAC 20.3 3.6 5.8
4 Zion Williamson NO 20.3 7.5 3.8
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.4 3.9 3.6
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 18.5 11.3 4.8
7 Keegan Murray SAC 14.4 5.5 1.8
8 Derik Queen NO 13.2 6.3 4.3
9 Nique Clifford SAC 12.7 3.9 2.3
10 Maxime Raynaud SAC 8.8 6.0 1.1
11 Herbert Jones NO 8.5 3.3 3.1
12 Jordan Poole NO 8.2 1.7 1.9
13 Jeremiah Fears NO 8.1 3.0 2.0
14 Bryce McGowens NO 7.9 1.9 1.5
15 Dylan Cardwell SAC 7.5 8.6 1.5
16 Devin Carter SAC 7.1 2.8 1.8
17 Yves Missi NO 7.0 6.2 1.5
18 Precious Achiuwa SAC 6.1 5.4 1.3
19 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 5.5 2.1 0.8
20 Karlo Matkovic NO 4.5 2.8 0.9
21 Micah Peavy NO 4.4 1.6 1.0
22 Doug McDermott SAC 3.8 1.5 0.7
23 Kevon Looney NO 3.1 4.7 0.9
24 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.1 1.6 0.6
25 Drew Eubanks SAC 2.7 1.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.