NBA games

ATL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
116–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL34223129116
MIN41402532138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIN
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 33 38 1 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 35 23 12 5
Onyeka Okongwu S 33 14 5 3
Corey Kispert 31 12 7 4
Jock Landale 18 12 6 0
Mouhamed Gueye 20 10 7 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 21 3 4 1
Gabe Vincent 19 2 1 4
Asa Newell S 25 2 4 1
Buddy Hield 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 30 6 6
Ayo Dosunmu 30 21 1 3
Julius Randle S 39 18 12 10
Jaden McDaniels S 34 18 5 3
Rudy Gobert S 33 18 6 1
Bones Hyland 15 13 1 5
Donte DiVincenzo S 26 10 4 6
Naz Reid 21 7 6 2
Jaylen Clark 5 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 6-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
17%
2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
15%
3 Julius Randle MIN
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
10%
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
5%
10 CJ McCollum ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
49%
Jumper
16%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.5 6.3 4.1
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.5 6.7 5.6
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.1 3.5 5.0
4 CJ McCollum ATL 18.1 3.7 3.6
5 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 17.9 4.5 4.1
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.3 7.5 3.8
7 Naz Reid MIN 15.1 7.3 3.1
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.0 3.8 3.0
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.1 4.2 3.7
10 Jock Landale ATL 13.1 6.7 2.1
11 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.1 5.9 5.9
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.1 4.8 1.3
13 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.9 11.2 1.6
14 Bones Hyland MIN 9.7 3.3 2.6
15 Corey Kispert ATL 9.3 2.2 1.7
16 Buddy Hield ATL 7.8 2.5 1.4
17 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.9 3.4 1.0
18 Asa Newell ATL 4.9 2.4 0.7
19 Enrique Freeman MIN 4.3 2.4 0.6
20 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.2 1.0 1.0
21 Joan Beringer MIN 4.1 3.2 0.7
22 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.9 1.9 0.8
23 Julian Phillips MIN 3.6 1.6 0.7
24 Joe Ingles MIN 2.8 1.4 1.0
25 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.8 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.