NBA games

MIL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
99–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2232202599
ORL27243631118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home ORL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Porter Jr. S 36 28 4 7
AJ Green S 32 15 6 1
Ryan Rollins S 32 14 6 3
Myles Turner S 27 13 6 3
Bobby Portis 17 10 0 0
Pete Nance 10 5 0 0
Jericho Sims 28 5 6 1
Cam Thomas 13 4 1 1
Kyle Kuzma S 18 3 5 0
Ousmane Dieng 5 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Black S 34 26 5 2
Desmond Bane S 31 25 3 1
Franz Wagner 17 14 2 5
Moritz Wagner 16 14 2 0
Paolo Banchero S 33 11 9 3
Jalen Suggs S 27 7 3 10
Noah Penda 16 5 6 2
Jase Richardson 17 5 3 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 24 4 8 2
Tristan da Silva 13 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
AJ Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:26 Q1
"AJ Green makes 26-foot running jump shot (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
11%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
9%
4 Anthony Black ORL
9%
5 Myles Turner MIL
9%
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL
9%
7 Franz Wagner ORL
8%
8 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
10 Jericho Sims MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
29%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.1 6.7 5.7
2 Franz Wagner ORL 21.1 4.7 3.4
3 Desmond Bane ORL 20.5 3.1 3.5
4 Ryan Rollins MIL 20.1 5.0 6.2
5 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 16.9 5.4 7.5
6 Anthony Black ORL 16.7 3.7 4.5
7 Myles Turner MIL 16.0 6.7 1.9
8 Bobby Portis MIL 15.9 6.7 2.8
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.2 5.6 4.1
10 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.7 4.4 6.1
11 AJ Green MIL 11.0 2.6 1.9
12 Cam Thomas MIL 10.5 2.1 3.9
13 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.2 5.1 2.0
14 Moritz Wagner ORL 7.8 2.8 1.0
15 Pete Nance MIL 7.3 3.4 1.1
16 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 6.6 1.3 1.3
17 Tristan da Silva ORL 6.1 2.1 1.4
18 Noah Penda ORL 5.3 2.2 1.3
19 Jett Howard ORL 4.6 1.5 1.1
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.4 4.5 0.5
21 Gary Harris MIL 4.2 1.8 1.4
22 Jase Richardson ORL 4.2 1.3 1.2
23 Jericho Sims MIL 3.5 3.5 1.0
24 Jevon Carter ORL 3.2 1.1 0.5
25 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.0 2.0 0.8
26 Ousmane Dieng MIL 2.8 1.2 0.9
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.2 1.0 0.7
28 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.6 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.