NBA games

UTAH @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
115–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH26352430115
MIA32203029111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MIA
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 25 22 5 3
Lauri Markkanen S 25 17 8 1
Kyle Filipowski 23 16 11 2
Ace Bailey S 37 16 8 2
Brice Sensabaugh 22 14 4 2
Isaiah Collier S 34 13 3 9
Jusuf Nurkic S 25 10 16 1
Vince Williams Jr. 15 5 2 7
Cody Williams 19 2 1 0
John Konchar 16 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 36 26 5 2
Bam Adebayo S 37 23 11 5
Kasparas Jakucionis 32 20 3 1
Davion Mitchell S 31 12 2 5
Simone Fontecchio S 19 9 5 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 31 9 4 5
Kel'el Ware S 14 8 6 0
Dru Smith 17 4 3 3
Myron Gardner 6 0 0 1
Nikola Jovic 17 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:58 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
13%
2 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
12%
3 Norman Powell MIA
11%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
6 Ace Bailey UTAH
10%
7 Jaren Jackson Jr. UTAH
10%
8 Pelle Larsson MIA
9%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
10 Myron Gardner MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
50%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 24.0 7.1 3.0
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.6 10.2 3.1
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. UTAH 22.1 6.3 2.6
4 Norman Powell MIA 21.0 3.9 3.1
5 Isaiah Collier UTAH 18.9 5.3 9.6
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 17.2 5.5 3.2
7 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 16.8 11.5 6.2
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.0 6.3 5.2
9 Ace Bailey UTAH 15.9 4.9 2.0
10 Pelle Larsson MIA 15.1 5.4 4.4
11 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 14.9 3.3 2.1
12 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 10.6 8.2 2.2
13 Simone Fontecchio MIA 9.5 4.2 2.2
14 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.2 2.8 6.0
15 Cody Williams UTAH 9.1 3.8 1.5
16 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.7 5.7 1.0
17 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.5 2.3 1.4
18 Vince Williams Jr. UTAH 8.3 3.0 2.8
19 Dru Smith MIA 7.4 3.7 3.3
20 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 7.1 2.9 3.5
21 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.9 3.1 1.4
22 Myron Gardner MIA 6.2 4.1 1.7
23 John Konchar UTAH 4.9 4.2 1.7
24 Jahmir Young MIA 4.7 1.5 1.0
25 Elijah Harkless UTAH 3.9 1.4 0.8
26 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 2.8 3.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.