NBA games

CHI @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
115–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI31233526115
BKN27332934123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home BKN
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 34 23 3 7
Collin Sexton 32 21 5 1
Matas Buzelis S 26 18 4 1
Jaden Ivey S 24 13 6 3
Nick Richards 26 12 6 1
Isaac Okoro S 36 10 4 4
Rob Dillingham 22 8 7 1
Patrick Williams 18 7 2 1
Guerschon Yabusele S 22 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nic Claxton S 32 28 10 4
Noah Clowney S 28 22 6 0
Drake Powell 23 14 5 0
Nolan Traore S 32 13 3 13
Danny Wolf S 26 13 6 2
Ziaire Williams 25 11 5 2
Terance Mann S 26 9 1 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 16 6 7 0
Jalen Wilson 20 4 4 1
Ben Saraf 13 3 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Matas Buzelis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Matas Buzelis makes dunk (Isaac Okoro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nic Claxton BKN
16%
2 Noah Clowney BKN
13%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
12%
4 Isaac Okoro CHI
12%
5 Anfernee Simons CHI
12%
6 Nolan Traore BKN
11%
7 Guerschon Yabusele CHI
11%
8 Jaden Ivey CHI
10%
9 Tre Jones CHI
0%
10 Patrick Williams CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
16%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Matas Buzelis CHI 17.6 6.0 3.0
2 Anfernee Simons CHI 15.6 3.2 2.5
3 Tre Jones CHI 13.2 3.3 6.7
4 Nolan Traore BKN 12.8 2.8 3.9
5 Noah Clowney BKN 12.5 5.2 2.1
6 Collin Sexton CHI 11.8 2.2 3.0
7 Nic Claxton BKN 10.8 6.5 3.3
8 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.6 3.0 1.6
9 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.6 2.7 1.6
10 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 10.0 7.6 2.1
11 Danny Wolf BKN 9.4 5.4 2.6
12 Terance Mann BKN 8.6 3.0 2.9
13 Patrick Williams CHI 8.3 3.0 1.4
14 Jaden Ivey CHI 8.2 2.9 2.0
15 Ben Saraf BKN 6.8 2.1 3.0
16 Drake Powell BKN 6.0 1.9 1.5
17 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.4 2.1 0.9
18 Ochai Agbaji BKN 4.4 1.7 0.6
19 Rob Dillingham CHI 4.0 1.4 1.2
20 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 3.9 2.7 0.7
21 Leonard Miller CHI 3.6 1.8 0.5
22 Nick Richards CHI 3.6 3.1 0.6
23 Josh Minott BKN 2.8 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.