NBA games

DET @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
110–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET29322722110
CHA33242126104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CHA
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 33 9 7
Duncan Robinson S 24 18 3 4
Jalen Duren S 20 15 5 2
Paul Reed 18 12 3 1
Tobias Harris S 35 11 5 1
Ausar Thompson S 25 6 8 2
Caris LeVert 23 5 2 1
Daniss Jenkins 19 4 3 1
Javonte Green 15 4 0 0
Isaiah Stewart 11 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 36 24 3 3
Kon Knueppel S 34 20 5 3
LaMelo Ball S 29 20 4 4
Grant Williams 25 12 2 5
Ryan Kalkbrenner 17 6 4 0
Sion James 23 6 2 3
Miles Bridges S 20 6 4 1
Josh Green 23 5 5 1
Tre Mann 14 5 4 2
Moussa Diabate S 19 0 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Duncan Robinson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Duncan Robinson makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Miller CHA
13%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
5 Tobias Harris DET
9%
6 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
8 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
8%
10 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
26%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.3 4.5 10.0
2 Brandon Miller CHA 21.5 5.6 3.8
3 Kon Knueppel CHA 19.1 6.2 3.8
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 17.8 4.2 6.9
5 Miles Bridges CHA 17.0 5.1 3.3
6 Jalen Duren DET 16.8 9.8 1.8
7 Tobias Harris DET 14.5 4.4 2.4
8 Duncan Robinson DET 10.6 2.6 1.8
9 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.1 9.5 1.7
10 Ausar Thompson DET 10.0 6.3 3.2
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.8 4.0 1.3
12 Daniss Jenkins DET 9.5 2.4 3.2
13 Kevin Huerter DET 7.8 3.6 2.9
14 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.7 5.3 0.9
15 Caris LeVert DET 6.5 2.1 2.9
16 Paul Reed DET 5.9 4.9 1.7
17 Grant Williams CHA 5.8 3.4 1.2
18 Javonte Green DET 5.7 2.6 0.8
19 Josh Green CHA 5.5 2.2 1.2
20 Sion James CHA 4.9 3.1 1.5
21 Tre Mann CHA 4.6 1.3 1.2
22 Marcus Sasser DET 4.3 1.3 1.6
23 Xavier Tillman CHA 1.8 1.2 0.4
24 Pat Connaughton CHA 1.1 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.