NBA games

IND @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
104–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND20282630104
TOR21254432122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home TOR
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 24 18 4 2
Jay Huff S 30 15 7 2
Jarace Walker 28 13 6 2
Ben Sheppard 27 12 5 4
Andrew Nembhard S 25 10 3 2
T.J. McConnell 16 10 3 7
Micah Potter 26 8 8 2
Aaron Nesmith S 23 7 1 1
Kam Jones 25 7 1 1
Johnny Furphy S 15 4 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 33 25 14 6
RJ Barrett S 32 20 8 5
Sandro Mamukelashvili 22 17 4 1
Immanuel Quickley S 28 13 4 6
Brandon Ingram S 26 13 5 3
Trayce Jackson-Davis 16 10 10 1
Gradey Dick 16 8 1 1
Jamal Shead 19 6 0 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 27 6 4 2
Alijah Martin 4 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 14-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Andrew Nembhard IND
11%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
6 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
9%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
6%
10 Jay Huff IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
30%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 24.7 5.1 4.4
2 Pascal Siakam IND 24.3 6.5 4.9
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.2 9.5 6.6
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.0 5.2 6.3
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.5 4.1 8.7
6 RJ Barrett TOR 19.5 5.8 3.8
7 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 16.9 5.9 2.8
8 Jarace Walker IND 16.5 5.4 2.7
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.0 4.2 2.8
10 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 12.7 7.4 3.4
11 Obi Toppin IND 9.3 4.1 2.0
12 T.J. McConnell IND 8.0 2.3 4.2
13 Jamal Shead TOR 7.6 2.8 4.7
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.1 2.5 1.4
15 Jay Huff IND 6.7 3.9 1.0
16 Johnny Furphy IND 6.7 5.6 1.8
17 Gradey Dick TOR 6.1 2.3 0.9
18 Micah Potter IND 5.7 3.6 1.2
19 Ben Sheppard IND 5.6 1.6 1.2
20 Jamison Battle TOR 4.0 1.7 0.8
21 Alijah Martin TOR 3.7 1.8 0.9
22 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.3 1.3 0.4
23 Kam Jones IND 3.2 1.7 1.3
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.7 1.1 0.5
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.9 1.7 0.4
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.