Sunday, February 8, 2026

MIA @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final

132–101

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MIA	37	37	33	25	132
WSH	33	19	23	26	101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MIA) games this season

MIA away

home WSH

64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Kasparas Jakucionis	26	22	3	6	8/10	6/6	27
Bam Adebayo S	28	22	8	3	9/15	2/6	41
Norman Powell S	25	21	4	0	5/12	5/10	7
Kel'el Ware	30	19	14	1	8/13	1/3	22
Simone Fontecchio	19	12	5	3	4/8	1/3	33
Andrew Wiggins S	23	11	10	2	4/11	3/6	1
Myron Gardner S	21	10	7	6	4/9	2/3	0
Davion Mitchell S	25	5	2	3	2/6	1/3	16
Nikola Jovic	6	4	1	2	2/3	0/1	0
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	24	4	4	6	2/12	0/4	9

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Tristan Vukcevic	20	14	5	2	5/11	4/5	-17
Kyshawn George S	19	13	2	3	4/12	3/6	-4
Bub Carrington S	29	13	2	5	6/13	1/6	-9
Justin Champagnie S	25	13	7	1	4/11	1/5	-8
Alex Sarr S	26	12	12	5	6/13	0/1	-5
Jamir Watkins	33	12	7	2	5/10	1/4	-33
Will Riley	21	9	1	0	4/10	1/4	-26
Sharife Cooper	20	8	1	3	3/5	0/0	-28
Bilal Coulibaly S	34	7	4	1	2/7	1/4	-4
Keshon Gilbert	13	0	1	1	0/1	0/1	-21

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Bub Carrington · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:13 Q1

"Bub Carrington makes 27-foot three pointer (Justin Champagnie assists)"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Alex Sarr WSH

2 Bam Adebayo MIA

3 Kyshawn George WSH

4 Norman Powell MIA

5 Andrew Wiggins MIA

6 Pelle Larsson MIA

7 Tre Johnson WSH

8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH

9 Will Riley WSH

10 Tristan Vukcevic WSH

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

12%

Dunk

Free Throw

21%

Jumper

34%

Layup

24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Bam Adebayo	MIA	23.3	10.2	3.3	22	8	3
2	Norman Powell	MIA	21.5	3.9	3.3	21	4	0
3	Alex Sarr	WSH	19.5	8.2	3.0	12	12	5
4	Kyshawn George	WSH	17.7	5.9	5.6	13	2	3
5	Andrew Wiggins	MIA	17.4	5.0	3.0	11	10	2
6	Jaime Jaquez Jr.	MIA	16.8	6.9	4.9	4	4	6
7	Pelle Larsson	MIA	14.9	5.5	4.3	—	—	—
8	Tre Johnson	WSH	14.6	2.6	3.0	—	—	—
9	Bub Carrington	WSH	14.2	3.1	5.2	13	2	5
10	Will Riley	WSH	12.6	3.4	2.6	9	1	0
11	Justin Champagnie	WSH	10.8	6.0	1.6	13	7	1
12	Bilal Coulibaly	WSH	10.3	4.1	2.5	7	4	1
13	Davion Mitchell	MIA	9.8	2.9	6.0	5	2	3
14	Simone Fontecchio	MIA	9.2	4.2	1.8	12	5	3
15	Kel'el Ware	MIA	8.1	4.8	0.9	19	14	1
16	Tristan Vukcevic	WSH	8.0	3.4	1.2	14	5	2
17	Dru Smith	MIA	7.7	3.8	3.2	0	1	2
18	Jamir Watkins	WSH	7.2	5.1	1.5	12	7	2
19	Nikola Jovic	MIA	6.6	3.1	1.3	4	1	2
20	Myron Gardner	MIA	6.2	3.9	1.1	10	7	6
21	Sharife Cooper	WSH	6.0	2.3	1.6	8	1	3
22	Kasparas Jakucionis	MIA	5.3	2.3	2.5	22	3	6
23	Anthony Gill	WSH	4.6	3.1	0.9	—	—	—
24	Jahmir Young	MIA	3.8	1.1	0.9	2	1	0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.