NBA games

NY @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
111–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY35252526111
BOS2429152189

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home BOS
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 33 31 3 8
Josh Hart S 26 19 6 3
Mikal Bridges S 30 14 4 1
Jose Alvarado 25 12 2 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 11 10 1
Mohamed Diawara 27 10 3 1
Tyler Kolek 4 6 0 0
Mitchell Robinson 16 5 9 2
Landry Shamet S 28 3 4 3
Trey Jemison III 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 33 26 2 4
Derrick White S 34 19 1 4
Nikola Vucevic 23 11 6 0
Baylor Scheierman S 29 10 13 5
Payton Pritchard 31 6 2 7
Luka Garza S 15 6 3 0
Neemias Queta S 23 4 5 1
Ron Harper Jr. 21 3 3 0
Hugo Gonzalez 12 2 1 0
Jordan Walsh 13 2 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
5 Derrick White BOS
9%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
7 Mitchell Robinson NY
7%
8 Josh Hart NY
7%
9 Luka Garza BOS
7%
10 Ron Harper Jr. BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
38%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 29.0 8.7 4.6
2 Jalen Brunson NY 22.8 3.8 5.8
3 Payton Pritchard BOS 20.6 3.6 5.0
4 Nikola Vucevic BOS 17.0 7.8 3.9
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 16.1 11.3 2.9
6 Derrick White BOS 15.6 4.6 5.8
7 Mikal Bridges NY 14.6 3.3 3.4
8 Josh Hart NY 12.1 6.6 4.4
9 Sam Hauser BOS 10.4 4.1 1.7
10 Neemias Queta BOS 9.9 8.5 2.2
11 Landry Shamet NY 9.3 2.3 1.7
12 Luka Garza BOS 8.7 3.8 1.4
13 Jordan Clarkson NY 6.3 1.8 1.2
14 Baylor Scheierman BOS 6.0 4.8 1.6
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.9 8.5 0.7
16 Jose Alvarado NY 5.7 2.6 2.4
17 Tyler Kolek NY 5.4 1.7 3.5
18 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.7 3.3 0.7
19 Mohamed Diawara NY 4.0 1.7 0.7
20 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.5 2.4 0.7
21 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 3.4 2.1 1.7
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.1 3.4 0.4
23 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 2.9 1.5 0.8
24 Trey Jemison III NY 2.8 2.7 0.6
25 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.2 1.2 0.6
26 Amari Williams BOS 1.7 2.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.