NBA games

CLE @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
132–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE25323639132
SAC31244130126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home SAC
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 35 2 4
Jarrett Allen S 33 29 10 1
James Harden S 32 23 2 8
Jaylon Tyson S 27 10 6 0
Thomas Bryant 15 10 3 2
Dennis Schroder 17 7 3 4
Keon Ellis 17 6 3 3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 17 6 5 2
Craig Porter Jr. 23 4 3 4
Sam Merrill S 24 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nique Clifford S 40 30 4 4
Russell Westbrook S 32 21 5 9
Devin Carter 27 18 4 4
Daeqwon Plowden S 39 16 6 4
Maxime Raynaud S 23 14 7 0
DeMar DeRozan S 30 13 2 3
Dylan Cardwell 25 12 11 4
Precious Achiuwa 16 2 2 2
Doug McDermott 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Russell Westbrook · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Russell Westbrook makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 James Harden CLE
16%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
15%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
6 Russell Westbrook SAC
10%
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE
9%
8 Maxime Raynaud SAC
8%
9 Sam Merrill CLE
6%
10 Dennis Schroder CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
39%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.4 4.5 7.5
2 James Harden CLE 25.4 4.9 8.7
3 Jaylon Tyson CLE 20.6 5.7 4.5
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.8 3.6 3.6
5 Russell Westbrook SAC 19.4 3.4 6.0
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.8 10.2 4.7
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.9 9.2 2.0
8 Dennis Schroder CLE 12.6 2.7 4.2
9 Sam Merrill CLE 12.5 2.6 2.3
10 Nique Clifford SAC 10.0 3.5 1.9
11 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 8.8 3.9 1.6
12 Maxime Raynaud SAC 7.8 5.7 1.1
13 Devin Carter SAC 6.4 2.5 1.7
14 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.4 8.2 1.4
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.2 3.0 4.4
16 Precious Achiuwa SAC 5.9 5.1 1.2
17 Keon Ellis CLE 5.7 1.7 0.9
18 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.2 2.7 1.0
19 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.2 1.3 1.8
20 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.8 2.1 0.9
21 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 3.8 1.6 0.5
22 Tristan Enaruna CLE 3.7 1.8 0.6
23 Doug McDermott SAC 2.6 0.7 0.4
24 Drew Eubanks SAC 2.4 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.