NBA games

MEM @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
115–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM30333319115
POR31322534122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home POR
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 25 25 5 0
Javon Small 28 22 6 4
Ty Jerome S 20 13 1 1
GG Jackson S 30 11 8 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 31 11 4 0
Kyle Anderson S 27 11 6 2
Walter Clayton Jr. 28 8 4 7
Jahmai Mashack S 30 8 1 1
Taylor Hendricks 22 6 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 33 29 5 3
Jrue Holiday S 27 21 2 4
Donovan Clingan S 36 20 19 3
Caleb Love 27 17 0 8
Blake Wesley 9 10 1 0
Vit Krejci 26 10 3 4
Toumani Camara S 34 8 7 1
Sidy Cissoko S 33 7 10 4
Yang Hansen 3 0 1 0
Rayan Rupert 11 0 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jrue Holiday · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:02 Q1
"Jrue Holiday makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ty Jerome MEM
12%
2 Deni Avdija POR
11%
3 Jerami Grant POR
10%
4 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
6 Cedric Coward MEM
9%
7 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
10 GG Jackson MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
20%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 26.1 6.8 6.2
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.5 4.4 3.5
3 Ty Jerome MEM 17.4 2.7 5.2
4 Jerami Grant POR 16.2 3.1 2.3
5 Jrue Holiday POR 13.9 3.9 5.1
6 Cedric Coward MEM 13.6 5.5 3.3
7 Toumani Camara POR 13.5 5.6 2.8
8 Cam Spencer MEM 13.5 2.8 6.0
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.3 3.6 1.9
10 Donovan Clingan POR 12.9 10.7 2.5
11 GG Jackson MEM 12.8 5.0 2.0
12 Caleb Love POR 12.7 2.9 3.4
13 Sidy Cissoko POR 9.5 3.2 1.7
14 Robert Williams III POR 8.9 8.0 1.5
15 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 7.1 2.4 3.0
16 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 7.0 3.5 1.2
17 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 7.0 2.6 2.2
18 Blake Wesley POR 6.5 2.4 3.3
19 Javon Small MEM 6.4 2.5 3.6
20 Kyle Anderson MEM 5.7 3.0 2.5
21 Rayan Rupert POR 5.5 2.3 1.2
22 Vit Krejci POR 5.3 1.6 1.0
23 Taylor Hendricks MEM 5.0 2.6 1.0
24 Yang Hansen POR 3.3 1.7 0.9
25 Jahmai Mashack MEM 3.2 1.5 1.0
26 Javonte Cooke POR 2.2 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.