NBA games

PHI @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
109–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI24342328109
PHX22252432103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home PHX
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 33 33 9 3
Tyrese Maxey S 40 29 9 6
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 38 18 6 2
Quentin Grimes 28 6 4 3
Dominick Barlow S 18 6 4 0
Trendon Watford 27 6 7 2
VJ Edgecombe S 25 5 6 2
Adem Bona 15 4 5 0
Justin Edwards 17 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 36 28 2 2
Devin Booker S 32 21 2 9
Royce O'Neale S 34 14 11 3
Mark Williams S 31 11 11 2
Jalen Green 17 8 3 3
Jordan Goodwin 27 7 3 0
Collin Gillespie S 28 6 4 2
Ryan Dunn 11 3 1 0
Oso Ighodaro 17 3 3 1
Jamaree Bouyea 8 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Gillespie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Collin Gillespie makes 25-foot three pointer (Mark Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
2 Dillon Brooks PHX
10%
3 Devin Booker PHX
10%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
5 Mark Williams PHX
8%
6 Paul George PHI
8%
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI
8%
8 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
9 Dominick Barlow PHI
6%
10 Joel Embiid PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
42%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 30.1 7.9 5.8
2 Devin Booker PHX 24.0 3.7 6.1
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.7 3.5 7.5
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 22.3 5.0 2.5
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 16.1 4.0 4.2
6 Paul George PHI 15.4 4.2 3.8
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI 14.7 5.9 4.3
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.7 4.6 2.1
9 Mark Williams PHX 12.3 8.0 1.4
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.8 3.5 3.4
11 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.4 4.8 1.4
12 Quentin Grimes PHI 9.2 3.2 2.9
13 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.9 4.6 2.2
14 Jalen Green PHX 8.8 2.1 1.6
15 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.0 5.1 2.0
16 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 6.4 2.6 1.8
17 Andre Drummond PHI 5.5 6.1 0.9
18 Trendon Watford PHI 5.1 2.7 1.5
19 Adem Bona PHI 5.0 4.6 0.6
20 Charles Bassey PHI 4.7 7.6 0.7
21 Ryan Dunn PHX 4.7 2.5 1.0
22 Amir Coffey PHX 3.8 1.3 0.7
23 Justin Edwards PHI 3.7 1.5 0.7
24 Johni Broome PHI 2.2 1.6 0.6
25 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.1 1.3 0.4
26 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.5 1.2 0.3
27 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.3 0.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.