NBA games

GS @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
99–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS2121292899
LAL20213826105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home LAL
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moses Moody S 39 25 4 2
Gui Santos S 26 15 8 3
Brandin Podziemski 33 14 6 4
Pat Spencer S 28 14 5 7
Gary Payton II 18 13 5 1
Draymond Green S 33 9 4 6
De'Anthony Melton S 24 5 0 1
Al Horford 23 4 4 0
Will Richard 10 0 0 1
Quinten Post 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 35 20 7 10
Rui Hachimura S 28 18 1 0
Austin Reaves 24 16 5 8
Marcus Smart S 33 15 3 4
Jarred Vanderbilt 19 13 8 2
Luke Kennard 26 10 2 2
Jaxson Hayes S 20 6 4 1
Maxi Kleber 28 5 7 1
Jake LaRavia S 27 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pat Spencer · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Pat Spencer makes 14-foot turnaround jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
14%
2 Deandre Ayton LAL
14%
3 De'Anthony Melton GS
13%
4 Jake LaRavia LAL
11%
5 Marcus Smart LAL
10%
6 Draymond Green GS
10%
7 Pat Spencer GS
9%
8 Gui Santos GS
9%
9 Moses Moody GS
9%
10 Al Horford GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
30%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Austin Reaves LAL 24.1 4.5 5.4
2 LeBron James LAL 22.8 5.5 6.8
3 De'Anthony Melton GS 15.8 3.9 3.3
4 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.6 4.8 5.3
5 Moses Moody GS 11.7 4.2 1.5
6 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.4 8.0 1.3
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.2 3.8 1.3
8 Marcus Smart LAL 9.9 3.0 2.7
9 Gui Santos GS 9.5 3.5 2.6
10 Jake LaRavia LAL 9.4 3.8 1.9
11 Al Horford GS 9.2 4.5 3.1
12 Draymond Green GS 8.9 4.7 4.2
13 Quinten Post GS 7.6 4.0 1.2
14 Luke Kennard LAL 7.4 2.9 1.2
15 Will Richard GS 6.6 2.7 2.6
16 Pat Spencer GS 5.9 2.2 2.4
17 Gary Payton II GS 5.8 2.5 1.2
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.7 3.4 0.7
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.6 4.2 1.5
20 Malevy Leons GS 4.1 2.4 0.9
21 Drew Timme LAL 3.8 1.4 0.9
22 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.5 1.4 0.6
23 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.2 2.1 0.8
24 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 2.5 0.6 0.7
25 Bronny James LAL 2.3 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.