NBA games

DEN @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
136–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN39203839136
CHI36293916120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home CHI
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 31 28 3 11
Tim Hardaway Jr. 29 23 3 1
Nikola Jokic S 33 22 14 17
Julian Strawther S 33 19 5 0
Cameron Johnson S 27 14 4 1
Christian Braun S 32 10 4 2
Jonas Valanciunas 13 10 4 1
Bruce Brown 31 10 3 4
Jalen Pickett 8 0 0 0
DaRon Holmes II 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 30 21 8 3
Collin Sexton 29 17 3 4
Anfernee Simons S 32 15 4 6
Nick Richards 19 15 7 0
Isaac Okoro S 26 13 2 3
Guerschon Yabusele S 26 12 2 0
Jaden Ivey S 30 10 6 3
Rob Dillingham 22 9 3 4
Patrick Williams 20 8 2 2
Leonard Miller 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cameron Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Peyton Watson DEN
13%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
4 Christian Braun DEN
10%
5 Cameron Johnson DEN
9%
6 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
7 Isaac Okoro CHI
9%
8 Anfernee Simons CHI
9%
9 Jaden Ivey CHI
8%
10 Jalen Pickett DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
30%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.0 11.7 10.1
2 Jamal Murray DEN 26.6 3.9 7.7
3 Peyton Watson DEN 20.4 4.9 3.1
4 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.9 5.5 3.1
5 Anfernee Simons CHI 14.3 3.0 2.1
6 Tre Jones CHI 12.8 3.2 6.4
7 Cameron Johnson DEN 12.7 3.8 2.7
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 12.0 3.7 1.7
9 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 10.7 7.2 2.0
10 Collin Sexton CHI 10.5 1.8 2.5
11 Bruce Brown DEN 10.0 3.5 2.0
12 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.8 2.5 1.4
13 Christian Braun DEN 8.7 4.1 2.7
14 Patrick Williams CHI 8.1 2.9 1.4
15 Julian Strawther DEN 7.7 2.6 1.5
16 Jaden Ivey CHI 7.4 2.5 1.6
17 Jalen Pickett DEN 6.3 3.2 3.3
18 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.5 3.8 0.7
19 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.2 1.6 1.1
20 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 3.5 2.4 0.7
21 Nick Richards CHI 3.0 3.1 0.7
22 Leonard Miller CHI 2.6 1.0 0.3
23 Rob Dillingham CHI 2.5 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.