NBA games

CHA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
126–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA32283828126
ATL35253029119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home ATL
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 34 26 6 5
Kon Knueppel S 36 23 8 4
LaMelo Ball S 31 19 1 9
Brandon Miller S 35 16 6 4
Grant Williams 16 11 3 1
Moussa Diabate S 32 11 15 2
Josh Green 13 8 1 0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 15 6 5 0
Tre Mann 10 3 1 2
Sion James 17 3 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 40 31 9 8
Zaccharie Risacher S 23 18 3 0
Onyeka Okongwu S 31 16 6 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 38 13 2 10
CJ McCollum 28 12 1 3
Dyson Daniels S 31 11 6 3
Corey Kispert 23 8 2 2
Jock Landale 17 5 0 1
Asa Newell 8 5 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zaccharie Risacher · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Zaccharie Risacher makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
3 Jock Landale ATL
9%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
8%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
6 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
7 Moussa Diabate CHA
8%
8 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
9 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
38%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 25.0 11.8 8.3
2 Brandon Miller CHA 23.2 5.8 3.5
3 Coby White CHA 22.0 4.2 5.1
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 20.2 5.9 4.0
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.9 3.5 4.6
6 CJ McCollum ATL 18.6 4.1 3.6
7 LaMelo Ball CHA 18.3 4.4 6.6
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.7 7.2 3.7
9 Miles Bridges CHA 14.6 5.1 2.9
10 Jock Landale ATL 14.2 7.3 2.0
11 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.5 5.8 5.8
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.5 9.6 1.8
13 Corey Kispert ATL 10.3 2.5 1.6
14 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.1 4.5 1.3
15 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.3 6.2 1.0
16 Buddy Hield ATL 8.2 2.6 1.6
17 Grant Williams CHA 6.1 3.4 1.3
18 Josh Green CHA 5.8 2.5 1.3
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.6 3.6 1.2
20 Sion James CHA 5.4 3.5 1.6
21 Tre Mann CHA 4.9 1.7 1.3
22 Tidjane Salaun CHA 4.6 3.9 0.7
23 Asa Newell ATL 4.5 2.2 0.6
24 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.2 1.0 1.0
25 Christian Koloko ATL 3.3 3.4 0.6
26 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.8 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.