NBA games

UTAH @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
117120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH30352923117
ORL33213333120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home ORL
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 27 27 7 1
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 25 22 4 3
Isaiah Collier 32 20 2 10
Kevin Love 12 13 6 0
Ace Bailey S 31 10 3 3
Kyle Filipowski 12 9 5 0
Keyonte George S 13 5 1 1
Brice Sensabaugh 23 4 3 2
John Konchar 18 4 7 3
Jusuf Nurkic S 24 3 14 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 23 7 8
Desmond Bane S 36 22 3 2
Anthony Black S 38 21 3 4
Moritz Wagner 17 13 8 0
Jalen Suggs S 34 12 7 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 8 6 1
Tristan da Silva 20 8 2 2
Noah Penda 10 6 2 0
Jase Richardson 14 5 0 2
Jett Howard 2 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 8-foot floating jump shot (Ace Bailey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
9%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
8%
4 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
8%
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
8%
6 Isaiah Collier UTAH
8%
7 Anthony Black ORL
8%
8 Cody Williams UTAH
7%
9 Jaren Jackson Jr. UTAH
7%
10 Ace Bailey UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
17%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.6 8.1 5.5
2 Keyonte George UTAH 25.4 3.6 6.0
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 24.7 6.9 3.0
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. UTAH 22.1 6.5 2.4
5 Desmond Bane ORL 21.5 3.8 4.1
6 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 18.3 11.3 6.6
7 Anthony Black ORL 17.8 4.3 5.2
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH 17.3 4.9 8.6
9 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 17.2 3.5 2.2
10 Ace Bailey UTAH 15.9 5.0 2.1
11 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.0 4.8 6.6
12 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 12.2 8.3 2.6
13 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.4 5.6 2.1
14 Cody Williams UTAH 10.3 3.8 1.6
15 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.1 2.5 1.6
16 Vince Williams Jr. UTAH 8.3 3.0 3.0
17 Moritz Wagner ORL 7.6 2.6 0.9
18 Tristan da Silva ORL 6.4 2.8 1.6
19 Kevin Love UTAH 6.3 6.0 1.6
20 Noah Penda ORL 6.1 2.9 1.5
21 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.7 5.3 0.8
22 Jett Howard ORL 4.5 1.6 1.0
23 Jase Richardson ORL 4.2 1.7 0.9
24 Jamal Cain ORL 4.0 1.4 0.8
25 John Konchar UTAH 3.9 3.1 1.2
26 Elijah Harkless UTAH 3.8 1.4 0.8
27 Jevon Carter ORL 3.6 1.1 0.6
28 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 3.5 3.6 0.7
29 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.4 2.2 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.