NBA games

DAL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
125–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL32352434125
SA39423324138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home SA
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson 19 19 1 2
Brandon Williams 24 18 3 4
Max Christie S 27 17 3 3
Marvin Bagley III 24 16 12 2
Cooper Flagg S 26 14 4 4
Caleb Martin S 24 11 5 2
P.J. Washington 23 10 5 3
Daniel Gafford S 18 9 4 2
Naji Marshall S 25 6 3 5
Tyus Jones 17 4 0 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 32 40 12 12
Devin Vassell S 30 17 4 6
Victor Wembanyama S 27 16 11 1
De'Aaron Fox S 26 15 2 5
Dylan Harper 23 11 4 5
Carter Bryant 17 11 5 0
Harrison Barnes 22 9 1 1
Keldon Johnson 16 8 4 0
Luke Kornet 16 6 4 3
Julian Champagnie S 15 5 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:41 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cooper Flagg DAL
13%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
4 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Max Christie DAL
8%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
9 Caleb Martin DAL
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
39%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 25.5 7.2 4.1
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.2 11.8 3.1
3 Naji Marshall DAL 21.8 7.0 4.1
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.8 3.8 8.2
5 Stephon Castle SA 16.5 4.6 7.3
6 Max Christie DAL 15.7 3.6 2.6
7 Brandon Williams DAL 15.6 3.7 2.8
8 Keldon Johnson SA 14.9 4.7 2.4
9 Dylan Harper SA 12.2 4.4 3.4
10 Julian Champagnie SA 11.9 4.6 1.7
11 Devin Vassell SA 10.8 3.5 1.6
12 P.J. Washington DAL 10.4 5.2 1.3
13 Klay Thompson DAL 9.6 2.6 1.7
14 Harrison Barnes SA 9.2 3.1 1.8
15 Marvin Bagley III DAL 9.0 5.9 1.2
16 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.0 8.3 1.1
17 Caleb Martin DAL 8.6 4.8 3.0
18 Luke Kornet SA 6.0 6.7 1.7
19 AJ Johnson DAL 5.2 2.2 1.4
20 Carter Bryant SA 5.0 2.6 0.7
21 Dwight Powell DAL 4.8 5.5 1.1
22 Tyus Jones DAL 3.0 1.1 1.6
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.9 1.3 0.8
24 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.0 1.1 0.7
25 Jeremy Sochan SA 1.3 0.9 0.4
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.3 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.