NBA games

HOU @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
112–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU28183432112
OKC28242232106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home OKC
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tari Eason S 34 26 8 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 43 22 10 0
Kevin Durant S 40 20 1 4
Alperen Sengun S 37 17 12 11
Reed Sheppard S 32 16 3 6
JD Davison 18 8 4 1
Dorian Finney-Smith 16 3 0 1
Clint Capela 8 0 1 1
Josh Okogie 12 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cason Wallace S 34 23 4 4
Isaiah Joe 29 21 3 2
Chet Holmgren S 35 17 14 0
Aaron Wiggins S 26 17 2 1
Alex Caruso 26 8 2 1
Jaylin Williams 15 6 3 1
Jared McCain 14 5 2 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 4 8 11
Kenrich Williams 8 3 2 1
Luguentz Dort S 27 2 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cason Wallace · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Cason Wallace makes two point shot (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant HOU
11%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
8%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
6 Ajay Mitchell OKC
7%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
7%
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC
5%
9 Isaiah Joe OKC
5%
10 Kenrich Williams OKC
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
52%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 25.2 5.0 5.0
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.4 11.0 6.2
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.2 8.9 2.0
4 Amen Thompson HOU 15.5 8.3 7.0
5 Ajay Mitchell OKC 14.8 3.6 3.7
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.5 6.4 2.4
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.2 4.5 2.6
8 Tari Eason HOU 12.1 7.0 1.9
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 11.3 3.2 2.1
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.5 4.4 1.7
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.9 2.9 1.7
12 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.8 8.6 2.4
13 Cason Wallace OKC 9.8 3.1 2.1
14 Kenrich Williams OKC 9.5 4.3 1.9
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 7.4 5.2 2.4
16 Josh Okogie HOU 6.5 3.5 1.3
17 Jared McCain OKC 5.5 1.2 1.3
18 Clint Capela HOU 5.3 5.8 0.8
19 Alex Caruso OKC 5.2 2.0 1.9
20 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.8 2.6 1.0
21 Isaiah Crawford HOU 4.5 2.2 0.8
22 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.8 1.6 1.0
23 JD Davison HOU 3.6 1.9 1.2
24 Jeff Green HOU 3.3 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.